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October, 2008 Archive

“Trading a Life” - My Story (Part 2)

GO TO PART 1
If you’ve read my bio, you’ll know I’ve been very sick the last few years, confined to my home, and learned to trade because of it. When I heard James “Rev Shark” DePorre’s story of learning to trade after going deaf, losing his job, and his wife, I could relate (except the wife part). But other than his hearing, I guess Rev’s health was ok. Mine’s not. Here’s my story. I wrote this for a trader friend of mine. However, it seemed fitting to post it here today, on my birthday, as I reflect on all that has transpired.

2007 was a much better year. My health was still a roller coaster and there were countless days I held on for dear life. However, things started to happen that made me feel more alive and mentally stronger. Mental health is more important than anything. A person in the worst circumstances can be happy, while someone with everything can be depressed.

I needed human interaction, even if only online. So, overestimating my improvements, I started the Systems Architecting and Engineering M.S. program at USC with just one online course. I still hoped to do engineering someday. If I could do night trading, I could surely handle one course right? I quickly gave up on this nonsense. I didn’t have the energy to keep up with the class schedule. Besides, the class was for managers much older than me. The markets were much friendlier to my chaotic lifestyle. I worked when I could, as much as I could, and simply rested when I felt terrible.

Luckily, even without middle-aged USC classmates, I didn’t go back to solitary confinement. An acquaintance in Utah, with whom I’d traded a few emails, kept me company. Other than my parents and occasional IMs with two buddies from college, this was the first person I’d talk to in over a year. Unlike my “friends” on TV, here was someone who responded and cared I existed. Day by day, the online chats and phone calls nursed away some depression. She didn’t mind I that couldn’t talk much at first. I slowly learned to control my mouth and form coherent phrases again. Through her stories, I felt more connected with the world. Our conversations helped me remember myself. My interests, ideals, humor, and creativity: parts of me that used to light up my life even when I was sick. I’m forever grateful she stayed with me on the phone everyday, and became my closest friend through it all.

Neither my mental or physical health turned around on a dime. Stories always jump to turning points, making things seem easy. If thing’s don’t come easily for people, one after another, they think something’s wrong. It’s not. Everything’s a process that takes shape over time.

Slowly, I became more proactive in my life as best I could. I turned my unfinished USC research paper on Akamai Technologies into my first stock analysis article, explaining complex technologies in layman terms. A lot of work went into the research paper. Why not make it useful? I submitted it to SeekingAlpha.com. The editors liked it enough to ask me to be a contributing author. What a fantastic confidence boost, especially for my first submission! This motivated me to write more. I felt my technical background gave me a firmer grasp of a company’s technology and opportunities than many analysts.

Did I find my niche? To explain to people a company’s technology and the company’s potential because of it? What a useful place my engineering degree proved to be in this new, unexpected “job”! It seemed like the best of both worlds. I launched a stock blog, Flyboys Fund, and wrote about technical topics such as technology and aerospace & defense. I found myself drawn more to global growth topics like construction, oil drilling, and the power grid. I actually enjoyed these companies’ conference calls because this was my comfort zone.

I was always uncomfortable owning stocks, like biotech, whose business confused me. These stocks were in my portfolio because they say you should have a little of everything to be “diversified.” No more. My portfolio had a facelift. I punted these stocks and replaced them with stocks I wrote about on my blog, the stocks I’ve knew. I didn’t have to spread my attention across tons of industries anymore. I concentrated on a few stocks, knowing them inside and out, selling when my analysis said the price was too high or buying when I felt the price was too low. I always kept extra cash for safety.

This is the general plan I’ve stuck with since then, though I’m constantly experimenting with new strategies such as options and technical trading. I figured, since the markets keep changing, I should be like a ninja: the more skills and tools I master, the better I can adapt. The airing of Fast Money in 2007 proved to be a godsend, teaching me to process news faster and take more decisive action. Thanks to Jeff Macke, I even went on the show via webcam.

My portfolio ended 2007 up nicely. Sure, global growth stocks like the ones I owned were stellar in 2007. How could I not make money? Why didn’t I make more? It doesn’t matter. What mattered was the markets started making sense to me, I felt I could succeed in the markets, and above all, I was a little healthier than I was in 2006.

Being tested by this death of a market in 2008, apparently I did learn a lot, or enough to not lose my pants. While the markets kept getting worse all year, my life has gotten better. Blogging helped me reach out to the world through the Internet. Many people have contacted me through my blog, including traders whom I’ve become great friends with.

In June, thanks to my friend’s dad, I visited the University of Utah Medical Center. For the first time in my 25 years, I found doctors who had dealt with conditions as severe as mine. Finally! The confidence in the doctors was well placed. Within a few weeks my skin cleared considerably. After 10 years, I can touch water again and even bathe now as part of the treatment.

Is everything peachy now? No. I have a long road ahead. The doctors are just getting their arms around the situation. Tests show my IgE allergy protein level at 18,000 (75-200 is normal), meaning I react hundreds of times more intensely to everything. We haven’t found a food I’m not allergic to, so I’m surviving on a prescription liquid diet. But I’m no longer in pain. I can go out, even went to New York for the Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference in September. I can look forward to tomorrow. It’s not dark anymore.

** Dedicated to my grandma, who passed away last November and couldn’t see me get well. She loved me as much as she could, maybe more. I miss her very much. **

** Thanks to all my angels: my parents, sister, family, friends, and doctors. I’m forever in your debt. **


PART 1

Videos Tracking My Health Developments

“Trading a Life” - My Story (Part 1)

GO TO PART 2
If you’ve read my bio, you’ll know I’ve been very sick the last few years, confined to my home, and learned to trade because of it.  When I heard James “Rev Shark” DePorre’s story of learning to trade after going deaf, losing his job, and his wife, I could relate (except the wife part).  But other than his hearing, I guess Rev’s health was ok.  Mine’s not.  Here’s my story.  I wrote this for a trader friend of mine.  However, it seemed fitting to post it here today, on my birthday, as I reflect on all that has transpired.

Why do we trade? There are as many reasons as there are traders, but the reasons are probably similar. Intrigue, gambling, occupation, and, for a few, because you’re actually great at it. In early 2006, a few months after college, I dipped my toe in the markets for sanity. I traded to escape reality. I traded to have a purpose. I traded so the people on CNBC could keep me company.

I was a complete market retard at first. Didn’t even know how to use Yahoo! Finance. True, in addition to engineering, I majored in mathematical economics, but I never cared much for finance. Only spent an hour per week on finance versus seventy or eighty on engineering. Being an engineer was my dream. Always loved figuring stuff out, having some vision in my mind, then seeing it come to life. Same reason graphic/web design was a hobby- I got to share my visions with others. But finance? Did it because I promised my dad I would.

So you ask, Jeff, why do you trade now? In short, life happened. I was born with asthma as well as severe skin and food allergies. I took a gamble on an immunosuppressant shot to deal with my allergies, hoping for a chance at a normal life. I wanted do what my friends were doing. Brand spanking new careers. Grad schools. Or just going out. But this shot nuked my life. My health, which had been sliding downhill since birth, simply fell off a cliff. My life and dreams went with it.

I looked like I had third degree burns or worse. Not a single clear patch of skin anywhere, only infections and leaking wounds that wouldn’t heal. My system was in chaos. Everything doctors tried made it worse, including the steroids I’d fall back on during emergencies such as this. Painkillers were off limits too. I was constantly itching and in pain. My mind also started to go. I didn’t know who I was, couldn’t comprehend much at times, and had trouble forming coherent speech. It might’ve been side effects from the shot, or simply a hysterical panic attack. I couldn’t cope with my new reality. I couldn’t see tomorrow. Little Orphan Annie stopped singing. Like P.O.W.’s, I felt “broken.” For two years, until a few months ago, I barely left my house, my room, and often had trouble just getting out of my chair.

One afternoon during these “early days” after “the shot,” I halted my channel surfing on CNBC to the screaming of Mad Money’s Jim Cramer. The show was packed with information and, for the first time in months, I didn’t feel brain-dead. At that moment, I became involved with the market. Doesn’t matter what people say about Cramer, even if every call he makes from now on is wrong, Cramer has my deepest gratitude for doing Mad Money that day.

I couldn’t have discovered the markets at a better time. Days get pretty long for someone without a job and can’t run the errands that fill up people’s days. Friends I’d chat with online had moved on with new lives. I woke up at odd hours while my parents were asleep, losing a bit more of my mind everyday as the loneliness set in. The markets gave me something to focus on, and it was accessible online. Like most beginners, I started on Yahoo! Finance. I signed up for way too many newsletters, forums, and even the Wall Street Journal. My dad had bits and pieces left from a portfolio he owned during the tech bubble. This was my starting capital.

I dove into it like every other naïve, innocent novice out there. Just because analysts and newsletters said Caterpillar’s stock was a buy, I believed them. I love the big yellow “CAT” dumptrucks. They were everywhere on National Geographic and Discovery shows! I sold the shattered pieces of MRV Communications my dad still had, and bought Caterpillar, all at once. Yes, everyone knows that’s a very bad idea, but I didn’t. I really didn’t know anything. Seemed ok at the time. The markets kept going up in spring of ’06. Easy! Sure helped my self-confidence and emotions. I thought, maybe I could make a living from my room! I saw other stocks, like Peru’s Southern Copper, go up everyday, much faster than my Caterpillar. China needed a lot of copper to build a city a day? It made sense. I bought the story and the stock. Again, bad idea. I know.

Focusing on the markets helped me get through the day. Any little thing that went my way was a big boost because everyday my health got worse. My body was simply overwhelmed by infections and allergies. I wasn’t handicapped, but my parents had to do everything for me, especially since I couldn’t touch water (hadn’t been able to for years). I was so weak my kneecaps would pop if I forgot to clench my muscles for even a moment. I hobbled to the bathroom or crawled there on my elbows. My skin was rotting, especially on the legs where I had the shots, and considered amputation. I was constantly on edge, uncertain of what I had to face tomorrow. Sometimes I wished I had cancer. At least I’d know what I had.

My sleep schedule was random. When I wake up or pass out was up to my body, not me. I was always exhausted, staying awake for only a few hours. I was mostly nocturnal. Daylight gave me migraines. The daytime heat irritated my rashes and often caused hot flashes.

Everyday I was woken up by pain, then cried out in pain while bandaging myself for the next hour. By the time I was done, my heart felt like it’d go into shock, and I’d collapse in front of the TV. I’d turn on CNBC, watching Squawk Box (3am here on the west coast) or a late replay of Mad Money. The anchors at CNBC were the only people I saw everyday and the only familiar voices I’d hear. They became my “friends”: Joe’s unique sense of humor; Mark’s quirky attitude; Erin’s engaging interviews; Dylan’s intuitive explanations. I even watched WorldWide Exchange from 1-3am. Yes, Ross Westgate in London, someone in California knows who you are!

These wonderful people kept me sane, and I dreaded the weekends when they were off air. When they were, I’d do research mostly by listening than web browsing. My eyelids hurt, and so did my bandaged fingers. I played Jim Cramer’s “Real Money” radio show (which he was still doing at the time) on weekdays, and conference call after conference call on weekends. Boring? No kidding! But I didn’t hurt as much when I had voices to focus on.

The good times making money on Southern Copper lasted for all of two weeks. The markets, especially metals like copper, went down hard in Summer ’06. My plan of buying, holding, making money, and living off of my “investments” suddenly sucked big time. The portfolio was worth less everyday. I couldn’t understand why. The “work” I did for months seemed worthless. (I realize now it’s just part of the job.) I was frustrated I couldn’t talk to the people on CNBC, or anyone, about this. I was angry I couldn’t be up while the markets were open, often thinking “if only…” Even when I was awake, I’d forget what I was doing. As I said, my mind wasn’t always there. This stress wasn’t healthy and I got even sicker. I couldn’t take it anymore. I sold Southern Copper and others I’d lost the most on…at the bottom. By the end of the year, Southern Copper had nearly doubled from where I sold it.

Everyone’s been there. Bought at the top, sold at the bottom, lost money, only to watch it go back up and laugh in your face. I felt worse because it was “my dad’s money.” Like everyone else, I wanted to give up, but I had something going for me. Something more painful than losing money: my reality. I needed the markets to focus on.

My mom said to consider the loss as tuition paid. I had learned a lot. I learned not to get emotionally married to any stock. I learned to sell, to think for myself, and to get back in.

It was impossible to watch the markets all day, even though I was always home. I worked around my unpredictable hours, taking a longer term “investing” view. I bought stocks I wouldn’t be afraid and confused about if they went down while I slept. Going along with my nocturnal hours, I caught up on news in the peace and quiet of the night, away from the market frenzy during the day. I even thought of myself as a “Night Trader,” the slow, languid counterpart of hyperactive “Day Traders.” I still bought and sold when I felt necessary, doing this early in the morning if I could. When there were economic or company announcements, I tried to get up for them. Then I’d pass out again.

Finally by the fall, my health stopped getting worse thanks to help from QiGong (Chinese internal energy exercises). Things weren’t rosy, but they weren’t in freefall anymore. That’s enough sometimes. My health improved a bit, then deteriorated some, but the worst was behind me. My portfolio made up some lost ground too, ending down slightly for 2006. Not bad for my first year, all things considered.

PART 2 COMING TOMORROW

Videos Tracking My Health Developments

Cool Videos! Minyanville’s Todd Harrison interviewed by Aaron Task

Longtime Bear Todd Harrison Turns Bullish — for a Trade

Hedge Fund Carnage: ‘Invisible Catalyst’ Causing Big Market Moves

Fear Stalks the Street: Does Paulson Have Any More Tricks Up His Sleeve?

McDermott Press Release: B&W Positioned for $960 Million in New Defense Contracts

B&W Positioned for $960 Million in New Defense ContractsHOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–

McDermott International, Inc. (NYSE:MDR) (”McDermott”) announced today that its subsidiary, The Babcock & Wilcox Company (”B&W”), has received a new award for the manufacture of nuclear components in support of U.S. defense programs. Under this award, the contracts for 2008 are valued in excess of $230 million. These are the initial contracts under a negotiated set of orders that, if executed, would total more than $960 million between 2008 and 2010.

These awards are in addition to a $1.7 billion series of contracts that B&W previously announced for 2007 to 2009. If the future orders are placed, the total value of the awards for the period of 2007 through 2010 would be approximately $2.7 billion.

The contracts employ a multiple-award approach over a number of years. This system is designed to give the U.S. government cost predictability while providing B&W with additional financial incentives based on performance.

“This multiple-award system provides additional opportunities to load level our manufacturing facilities to improve efficiency and scheduling activities,” said John A. Fees, Chief Executive Officer of McDermott International. “Both parties will benefit from improved efficiencies to control cost and schedule. All of us at McDermott are proud of our work for the government, and we look forward to continuing to provide products of the highest quality.”

The work that is funded by these contracts is conducted by B&W’s subsidiary, Nuclear Operations Group, Inc. Headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia, the Nuclear Operations Group’s other locations include Barberton, Ohio; Mount Vernon, Indiana; and Euclid, Ohio.

McDermott is an engineering and construction company, with specialty manufacturing and service capabilities, focused on energy infrastructure. McDermott’s customers are predominantly utilities and other power generators, major and national oil companies, and the United States Government. With its global operations, McDermott operates in over 20 countries with more than 25,000 employees, and can be found on the internet at www.mcdermott.com.

McDermott cautions that statements in this press release which are forward-looking and which provide other than historical information, involve risks and uncertainties that may impact actual results. Forward-looking statements in this press release include statements about the expected timing and value contracts subject to the award and benefits or opportunities from the award. These statements are subject to numerous uncertainties and risks, including adverse changes in the needs of the U.S. government, the possibility that some of the contracts under the multiple-award system will not be finalized or awarded as expected, or other adverse changes or modifications to the award. If these or other risks materialize, actual results may vary materially from those expected. For a more complete discussion of these and other risks involved in our operations, please see McDermott’s most recent annual and quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Source: McDermott International, Inc.

**Disclosure: I own shares of MDR as of this post.**

Bloomberg: Subprime Collapse to Global Financial Meltdown: Timeline

Where were you on…

Subprime Collapse to Global Financial Meltdown: Timeline
2008-10-13 14:08:40.950 GMT

By Chris Dolmetsch
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — The following is a timeline of events
that led to the current global financial crisis.

March 5, 2007: HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank by
market value, says the U.S. subprime market is “unstable” and
now in a “downturn,” making it the main drag on company
earnings.

March 29, 2007: HSBC Chairman Stephen Green says the U.S.
subprime mortgage services division will be “run down
significantly” as the bank tries to recover from loan losses.

April 2, 2007: New Century Financial Corp., which
specialized in loans to people with poor credit, files
for bankruptcy protection after being overwhelmed by customer
defaults.

July 17, 2007: Investors in two Bear Stearns Cos. hedge
funds that invested in collateralized debt obligations backed by
subprime mortgage loans are told there is no value left in the
funds, wiping out $1.6 billion originally invested.

July 19, 2007: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
tells the U.S. Senate’s Banking Committee that there may be as
much as $100 billion in losses associated with subprime mortgage
products.

Aug. 9, 2007: BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank,
halts withdrawals from three investment funds because it can’t
“fairly” value their holdings, as concern over U.S. subprime
mortgage losses roils credit markets.

Aug. 22, 2007: Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S.
mortgage lender, sells $2 billion of preferred stock to Bank of
America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank by market value, to bolster
its finances.

Sept. 14, 2007: Northern Rock Plc says the Bank of England
agreed to provide emergency funds to ease a “severe liquidity
squeeze” sparked by U.S. subprime mortgage defaults following
the first run on a British bank in more than a century.

Oct. 9, 2007: U.S. stock indexes rally to records for the
second time in a month after minutes from the Fed allayed
investor concern that the U.S. economy is heading for a
recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard &
Poor’s 500 Index set all-time highs, with the Dow closing at
14,164.53.

Oct. 30, 2007: Merrill Lynch & Co. ousts Stan O’Neal as
chairman and chief executive officer after reporting a $2.24
billion loss, six times bigger than a forecast the firm offered
just three weeks earlier.

Nov. 4, 2007: Citigroup Inc. CEO Charles “Chuck” Prince,
who took over in 2003, steps down after the largest U.S. bank by
assets increased its estimate for mortgage-related writedowns.

Jan. 11, 2008: Bank of America, the biggest U.S. bank by
market value, agrees to buy Countrywide for about $4 billion.

March 14, 2008: Bear Stearns Cos. gets emergency funding
from the U.S. Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as a run
on the bank depletes its cash reserves in three days.

March 16, 2008: JPMorgan Chase agrees to buy Bear Stearns
for 7 percent of its market value in a sale brokered by the Fed
and the U.S. Treasury.

April 1, 2008: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-
largest U.S. securities firm, raises $4 billion from a stock sale
to quell speculation it’s short of capital.

April 9, 2008: Washington Mutual Inc. rejected an offer from
JPMorgan Chase to buy it for as much as $8 a share, or $7
billion, before announcing it received a $7 billion capital
infusion from a group led by TPG Inc., the Wall Street Journal
reports, citing people familiar with the situation.

April 28, 2008: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service starts
distributing tax rebates electronically as part of a $168 billion
economic stimulus plan.

May 31, 2008: Bear Stearns ceases to exist as the
acquisition by JPMorgan is completed.

June 20, 2008: The Dow closes below 12,000.

July 11, 2008: IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the second-biggest
independent U.S. mortgage lender, is seized by federal regulators
after a run by depositors depleted its cash.

July 31, 2008: Nationwide Building Society, Britain’s
fourth-biggest mortgage lender, says U.K. house prices declined
the most in almost two decades in July and consumer confidence
fell to a record low as the economy edged closer to a recession.

Aug. 31, 2008: Commerzbank AG agrees to buy Allianz SE’s
Dresdner Bank for 9.8 billion euros in Germany’s biggest banking
takeover in three years.

Sept. 7, 2008: The U.S. government seizes control of Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies.

Sept. 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. files the
largest bankruptcy in history, and Bank of America agrees to
acquire Merrill Lynch for about $50 billion.

Sept. 16, 2008: American International Group Inc. accepts an
$85 billion loan from the Fed to avert the worst financial
collapse in history, and the government takes over the company.

Sept. 18, 2008: Lloyds TSB Group Plc, the U.K.’s biggest
provider of checking accounts, agrees to buy HBOS Plc, Britain’s
largest mortgage lender, for 10.4 billion pounds.

Sept. 21, 2008: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley
receive approval to become commercial banks regulated by the Fed
as tight credit markets forced Wall Street’s two remaining
independent investment banks to widen their sources of funding.

Sept. 23, 2008: Goldman Sachs says it will raise at least
$7.5 billion from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and
public investors in a bid to quell concerns that pushed up the
Wall Street firm’s borrowing costs and hurt its stock.

Sept. 26, 2008: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
ends a program that monitored securities firms’ capital after
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, the only companies remaining
under its jurisdiction, became banks overseen by the Fed.

Sept. 26, 2008: The SEC’s inspector general releases a
report asserting that the agency failed in overseeing Bear
Stearns because it knew the firm had “high leverage” and was
too concentrated in mortgage securities before its forced sale to
JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Sept. 26, 2008: Washington Mutual Inc. is seized by
government regulators and its branches and assets sold to
JPMorgan Chase in the biggest U.S. bank failure in history.

Sept. 27, 2008: Washington Mutual files for bankruptcy
protection.

Sept. 28, 2008: Fortis, the largest Belgian financial-
services firm, receives an 11.2 billion-euro ($16.3 billion)
rescue from Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg after
investor confidence in the bank evaporates.

Sept. 29, 2008: The House of Representatives rejects a $700
billion plan to rescue the U.S. financial system, sending the Dow
Jones Industrial Average down 778 points, its biggest point drop
ever. Citigroup agrees to acquire the banking operations of
Wachovia Corp. for about $2.16 billion after shares of the North
Carolina lender collapsed under the weight of overdue mortgages.
Bradford & Bingley Plc, the U.K.’s biggest lender to landlords,
is seized by the government. The Dow closes below 11,000.

Sept. 30, 2008: Dexia SA, the world’s biggest lender to
local governments, gets a 6.4 billion-euro state-backed rescue as
a worsening financial crisis forces policy makers across Europe
to aid ailing banks. Ireland says it will guarantee its banks’
deposits and debts for two years.

Oct. 1, 2008: The U.S. Senate approves a revised version of
the rescue plan that was refashioned to entice enough votes for
passage.

Oct. 3, 2008: The House passes the revised version of the
rescue plan. Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. bank on the West
Coast, agrees to buy all of Wachovia for about $15.1 billion,
trumping Citigroup’s government-assisted offer. U.S. President
George W. Bush signs the rescue plan into law.

Oct. 5, 2008: BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, will
take control of Fortis’s units in Belgium and Luxembourg after an
earlier government rescue failed to ensure the company’s
stability as the global credit crisis worsened.

Oct. 6, 2008: The Fed says it will double its auctions of
cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering
further steps to unfreeze short-term lending markets as the
credit crunch deepens. The German government and the country’s
banks and insurers agreed on a 50 billion euro ($68 billion)
rescue package for commercial property lender Hypo Real Estate
Holding AG after an earlier bailout faltered. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average falls below 10,000 for the first time in four
years.

Oct. 9, 2008: Citigroup walks away from its attempt to buy
Wachovia, handing victory to Wells Fargo. The Dow Jones falls
below 9,000 for the first time in five years and briefly dips
below 8,000.

For Related News:
For more on the economy: ECO <GO>.
For top stories on the financial crisis EXTRA <GO>

–Editors: Steve Dickson, Mark Schoifet.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Chris Dolmetsch in New York at +1-212-617-8969 or
cdolmetsch@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Schoifet at +1-212-617-4691 or
mschoifet@bloomberg.net.

** Disclosure: no positions in the stocks mentioned. **

Historic Day Bouncers

“Historic day” definitely refers to the global coordinated interest rate cut by the U.S., England, Europe, and China- the four most influential economies of our day.  I was joking on my Twitter feed how exciting it was that China joined the “Allied Forces.” Yeah, the rate cuts probably took the world a step back from the cliff of a worldwide deep recession, but the positive benefits of the cuts, if any, probably won’t be felt for months and months.  What mattered more for me today, and probably for those who monitor their investment accounts closely, it was just good to have a day where we weren’t in freefall.  Down 200 on the DOW is never a happy day, especially working off a DOW 9450 base rather than a DOW 13000.  Despite the last hour selloff, there was sustained buying for the later half of the day after the initial selloff.  That was encouraging. People weren’t just letting things free fall anymore.  A lot of stocks were actually up today- stocks that haven’t seen the (green) light of day for quite a while now.  Many of these have been blown back to levels of 2, 3, or more years ago where there was sustained buying interest, so maybe those acted as temporary support as well.

So, I grabbed a stock screen off of FinViz.com (the coolest free financial website) of the stocks that were up today.  These might indicate where some buying interest are, and where long term holders have felt the stocks have gotten back to prices where they’d buy them.  Also, a lot of these stocks were held by liquidating hedge funds and, at least for today, they’ve stopped liquidating.  Doesn’t mean they, or their copycat funds, won’t.  So there’ll likely be a lot of resistance (sellers selling into strength).  But after the bounce today and the sellers do their thing, if these levels can hold I’ll dip into a few of these.

About half the list the screen turned up were basic materials stocks (probably another interest rate cut = lower dollar = higher commodities).  A lot of the basic material stocks were the gold miners, f.y.i.

Screen: Market Cap Over $300mln, Relative Volume over 1.5x average

No. Ticker Company Sector Industry Country Market Cap P/E Price Change Volume
1 ABX Barrick Gold Corporation Basic Materials Gold Canada 31.13B 16.77 35.71 17.08% 29,922,500
2 AEM Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Canada 7.26B 63.14 50.51 12.97% 7,672,300
3 ANR Alpha Natural Resources Inc. Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals USA 2.79B 24.01 39.62 10.79% 8,357,600
4 CAM Cameron International Corporation Basic Materials Oil & Gas Equipment & Services USA 6.21B 11.94 28.54 8.11% 11,076,900
5 AU AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. Basic Materials Gold South Africa 5.56B - 19.71 19.53% 3,736,000
6 AUY Yamana Gold, Inc. Basic Materials Gold Canada 5.25B 24.23 7.51 18.83% 34,883,100
7 CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals USA 3.24B 4.91 57.31 11.52% 9,480,800
8 CNX CONSOL Energy Inc. Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals USA 6.77B 38.49 36.95 11.26% 11,352,900
9 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Basic Materials Copper USA 16.36B 5.45 42.60 10.11% 33,631,000
10 GBN Great Basin Gold Ltd. Basic Materials Nonmetallic Mineral Mining Canada 340.85M - 1.61 11.03% 1,624,300
11 GFI Gold Fields Ltd. Basic Materials Gold South Africa 5.84B 10.16 8.94 32.05% 14,869,400
12 GG Goldcorp Inc. Basic Materials Gold Canada 22.10B 45.62 31.02 19.72% 30,307,500
13 GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Channel Islands 3.17B 74.29 41.60 22.79% 2,454,100
14 HMY Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. Basic Materials Gold South Africa 4.29B - 10.66 34.77% 8,845,900
15 HSVLY HIGHVELD STEEL ADR Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals South Africa 1.19B 8.65 12.02 9.57% 35,700
16 KGC Kinross Gold Corp. Basic Materials Gold Canada 9.97B 31.76 16.20 18.94% 19,087,400
17 KWK Quicksilver Resources Inc. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 1.95B 3.96 12.29 8.76% 6,945,500
18 LIHR Lihir Gold Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Papua New Guinea 34.77B - 18.30 10.17% 1,753,200
19 MON Monsanto Co. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals USA 44.79B 23.88 81.44 9.79% 27,036,900
20 NEM Newmont Mining Corp. Basic Materials Gold USA 16.95B 533.29 37.33 14.83% 16,291,200
21 POT Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals Canada 30.07B 15.60 98.60 13.52% 32,992,400
22 PXP Plains Exploration & Production Company Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 2.56B 5.24 23.75 9.45% 8,448,400
23 RGLD Royal Gold Inc. Basic Materials Gold USA 1.35B 59.30 39.73 16.00% 1,218,000
24 RRC Range Resources Corp. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 4.75B 78.56 30.64 9.27% 8,418,600
25 SD SandRidge Energy, Inc. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration USA 2.31B - 13.97 11.40% 10,866,200
26 SSRI Silver Standard Resources Inc. Basic Materials Silver Canada 835.66M - 13.33 10.53% 1,579,300
27 WLT Walter Industries Inc. Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals USA 2.02B 16.63 36.26 10.62% 5,429,000
28 XCO EXCO Resources Inc. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 1.74B - 8.26 7.97% 8,203,600
29 SYT Syngenta AG Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals Switzerland 17.06B 12.17 36.02 7.14% 2,604,100
30 SPW SPX Corporation Consumer Goods Appliances USA 2.61B 7.57 48.13 7.72% 4,776,500
31 FBN Furniture Brands International Inc. Consumer Goods Home Furnishings & Fixtures USA 459.11M - 9.41 8.41% 1,899,900
32 GGP General Growth Properties Inc. Financial REIT - Retail USA 1.45B 21.60 5.40 20.00% 17,753,200
33 CBL CBL & Associates Properties Inc. Financial REIT - Retail USA 717.03M 22.06 10.81 19.84% 4,246,600
34 AOC Aon Corporation Financial Accident & Health Insurance USA 11.78B 20.10 42.42 8.27% 5,080,100
35 STT State Street Corp. Financial Regional - Northeast Banks USA 18.82B 10.43 43.60 9.14% 14,257,900
36 SLG SL Green Realty Corp. Financial REIT - Retail USA 2.85B 21.24 49.07 8.25% 1,763,200
37 RBS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Financial Foreign Money Center Banks United Kingdom 18.54B - 1.85 24.16% 14,986,300
38 XIDE Exide Technologies Industrial Goods Industrial Electrical Equipment USA 384.13M 7.61 5.10 7.37% 3,115,100
39 FLS Flowserve Corp. Industrial Goods Diversified Machinery USA 3.66B 9.93 63.84 12.12% 3,258,400
40 MELI Mercadolibre, Inc. Services Business Services Argentina 853.91M 77.12 19.28 8.50% 1,748,800
41 IRM Iron Mountain Inc. Services Business Services USA 5.51B 37.44 27.33 11.37% 2,735,600
42 DISH Dish Network Corp. Services CATV Systems USA 8.19B 8.54 18.19 7.44% 7,346,700
43 YRCW YRC Worldwide Inc. Services Trucking USA 362.01M - 6.32 26.91% 7,084,900
44 SYNA Synaptics Inc. Technology Business Software & Services USA 801.19M 31.26 23.76 10.05% 2,927,800
45 RHT Red Hat Inc. Technology Application Software USA 2.80B 38.55 14.65 8.76% 3,889,700
46 NTCT NetScout Systems Inc. Technology Business Software & Services USA 376.22M - 9.60 21.21% 745,100
47 PCLN Priceline.com Inc. Technology Internet Service Providers USA 2.47B 14.43 63.51 10.74% 3,897,600
48 PEGA Pegasystems Inc. Technology Business Software & Services USA 398.94M 39.25 10.99 7.43% 178,600
49 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits USA 5.19B 8.07 22.99 11.12% 10,347,800
50 DASTY Dassault Systemes SA Technology Technical & System Software France 5.35B 19.01 45.25 8.93% 54,400
51 CLS Celestica Inc. Technology Printed Circuit Boards Canada 1.20B 10.92 5.24 8.94% 3,341,700
52 CNQR Concur Technologies, Inc. Technology Technical & System Software USA 1.56B 92.88 31.58 7.78% 1,970,100
53 ARBA Ariba Inc. Technology Internet Software & Services USA 942.45M - 10.96 8.51% 2,530,800
54 ATML Atmel Corp. Technology Semiconductor - Broad Line USA 1.84B 103.00 4.12 8.71% 7,950,700
55 CBR CIBER, Inc. Technology Information Technology Services USA 337.29M 11.26 5.63 7.85% 666,500
56 CEL Cellcom Israel Ltd. Technology Wireless Communications Israel 2.97B 10.86 30.40 7.61% 414,700
57 LDK LDK Solar Co.Ltd. Technology Diversified Electronics China 2.29B 8.49 21.48 11.18% 4,630,500
58 FORM FormFactor Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Broad Line USA 816.85M - 16.65 12.27% 1,462,600
59 BRKS Brooks Automation Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials USA 464.21M - 7.30 7.20% 1,201,400
60 AYE Allegheny Energy Inc. Utilities Electric Utilities USA 5.08B 9.90 30.10 8.63% 7,126,500

Please visit my stock research tools site, SuckingLess.com, for more resources like FinViz.com

**Disclosure: no positions in stocks mentioned.**

Bloomberg: Fed, ECB, Central Banks Lower Rates in Coordinated Reduction

Allied forces finally comes together!  wow what a historic day. I’ve been saying that everyday this year.

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) [By Scott Lanman]  — The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and four other central banks lowered interest rates in an unprecedented, emergency coordinated bid to ease the economic effects of the financial crisis.

The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a half point to 1.5 percent, the central bank in a statement. The ECB and central banks of the U.K., Canada, Sweden and Switzerland are also reducing rates, the Fed said in a statement.

“The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further the upside risks to price stability,” according to a joint statement by the central banks. “Some easing of global monetary conditions is therefore warranted.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 8, 2008 07:04 EDT

Fed, ECB, BOE, China Cut Interest Rates as Credit Crisis Hammers Economies

Skin Biopsy & Allergy Test Results are Back


Skin Biopsy & Food Allergy Blood Test Results from 9/10/08 trip to University of Utah Medical Center

Biopsy: Ok, as expected.
dermatitis w/eosinophil
thickening of skin, inflammation
no evidence of underlying tumor of lymphnodes

IgE: 20,111

Food Allergy Tests using blood samples
BAD if > 0.1 ml

Apple: 34.1
Beef: 3.6
Broc: 15.6
Chicken: 14.4
Cabbage: 21.6
carrot: 20.6
Lettuce: 9.8
Milk: 48.8
Peach: 39.4
Rice: 24.2
shrimp: > 100

Utah Medical Trip Update - 9.8.08

PICTURES FROM FIRST VISIT IN JUNE ‘08 (vs. this video of 3rd visit)

Condition of Neck and Shoulders while on Steroids

Condition of my Back on 7/18/08

condition of Left Leg on 7/16/08

UpStart Trader Provides Some Historical Perspective on Bear Market Bottomings

This post was written back in January by UpStart Trader, but it’s probably more relevant now than at the beginning of the year.  We’re obviously in the center of a critical moment in history.  Few if any of us can honestly say we’ve been in situations like this and know what to expect…but the next best thing is knowing your history. While the situation is unique, human behavior doesn’t change all that much.

History of US Bear Markets

Congressman, Please Vote “YEA” On the Financial Rescue Bill

Hi Congressman Miller,

Thanks for voting “Yes” on the Financial Rescue Bill for our country on Tuesday, 9/30/08.  Sadly, the majority did not understand the gravity of the situation and voted against the bill.  Please vote “Yes” again tomorrow, despite the revised version having a lot of differences with the original bill.  From what I see here on the ground, and through friends and family doing business throughout the world, the world is falling off a cliff. Not only did we lose 777.68 on the DOW on Tuesday, equal to $1.4Trillion, double the cost of the bill, but the after effects of that loss throughout the economy into our GDP is several times greater.  We need to save our country, our way of life, at any cost.  $850B is a pittance to what we’d lose if we don’t act.  Please deliver my message to the rest of Congress. Thanks

~Jeffrey Lin, Rowland Heights, CA

This is the first time I’ve contacted my Congressman.  I’ll admit, I didn’t even know I had one!  (just kidding, it’s like a bellybutton, everyone has one)  But I don’t know the man’s policies, what he ran on, or what he’s done for my community.  But at this crucial moment in history, bigger than 9/11, Vietnam, or any other event other than WWII in the past century, will the decisions we make at this moment mean so much for us and future generations…the path history will take.  Congressman Miller voted YEA on Tuesdsay, 9/30, and I hope he’ll vote YEA again Tomorrow, Friday, 10/3.  If he does, he’ll have done more good for me and everyone in America than he’ll ever need.  Call your Congressman- make sure they do the same.