• XHTML Valid
  • CSS Valid
  • XML Feed
  • RSS Comments
  • Wordpress.Org
  • Powered by Technorati
  • Finance Blogs - Blog Top Sites
  • BlogBurst.com

Cutest Video Ever!


View my page on PickensPlan

Visit PickensPlan

January, 2009 Archive

Selling Girls in China to Adopting Parents. What’s it worth? My Perspective

If people missed out on this offshoot conversation coming from this article via twitter.. a review:

ryamada @JeffreyLin More seriously, I do know a Cornell econ prof that wants to look at the arbitrage market for adoptions of young girls from Asia

JeffreyLin @ryamada arbitrage in terms of…money? any life here is better than a life there almost definitely

ryamada @JeffreyLin Question: if life (especially as a girl in China) is so cheap, why does it remain so expensive for American parents to adopt?

ryamada @JeffreyLin Presumably there are factors (norms, politics) that prevent the “market” from efficiently eliminating the arbitrage opportunity

continued…

I believe you have to cast aside your analytical mind and wear the shoes of a compassionate person. i can not look at this from a monetary/politics/ or even a social standpoint. you have to go smaller. its about people. no, the person. imagine ur a parent. how desperate would you have to be, if you loved your child, to have to sell that child? you would most likely be in a lot of debt, a druggie, or barely able to support yourself. as your kid came along, you cannot support them. either you sell the child or you both die. so, its not just about “how much it would cost to feed/raise that child.” you’d want enough money to feed yourself for a while, to get by, and thankful someone else can give your kid a better life.

the adopting parents are willing to pay, able to pay, and compassionate enough to pay. after all, your giving money to the parent of your adopted child.

with that said, these emotions probably ring louder for me because “selling young girls” have been a big part of chinese culture and history going far far back. There have been women I know, related to, and/or heard in stories that were sold when they were girls. They were girls whos parents were too poor to even feed themselves and the hardest decision was to sell the girl just to live another day. Unless you’re psycho, and i know some are, it is not normal and not easy for a parent to give up their child. And even if it seemed that way when they gave them up, they might’ve been too young, but regret it later and want to find the child again. (too much lifetime tv, television for women). Many chinese girls, all throughout history, were sold as maids to wealthy families. The social gaps were just too great. The poor, farmers or whatnot, could barely have enough for themselves, and the landlords could live on their riches forever.

Another case is when girls were sold for money so the son could have a proper wedding. Again though, it is because a lot of people were so poor, but also because of the traditional importance of the male “namebearer” in the family, when time came where the family needed a big chunk of money, the only option was to sell the daughter.

This isn’t just a Chinese historical culture thing or with girls. A similar story was told in the movie “A Knight’s Tale” where Heath Leger’s character was sold to a knight when he was a young boy.

so why do people do something that seems overpriced, or irrational? things like this i don’t believe is about the money. you could observed this in ancient china or today, the amount of money paid for the girls would be different, the form of money is even different, but what stays the same is how the parents, adopting parents, and the adopted child feels. there is no “logical” price on love and human connections. that is why parents, when their kids have been kidnapped, would give up everything and take on debt or do just about anything to have their child back safely. you can work to get back money, even if u have to work in McDonalds or scrub toilets, but u can’t revive a person.

Guest Post: V.I.C. Stock Watchlist for 1/28/2009 by Daytrend of FINZ.tv’s POSSE

**A guest post by Vic Scherer, aka Daytrend, my friend and fellow blogger over at POSSE: FINZ.tv’s Trade Journal. Vic prepares daily scans of market trends, earnings, and technical analysis and narrows it down to the best trade opportunities for the days ahead. Today is a special post because it is once again FED day, where the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions around 2pm EST.  And don’t forget, we’re still in earnings season!**

V.I.C. Stock Watchlist for 1/28/2009

by Daytrend

Wednesday is Fed day.

There are daily setups GALORE in banks, financials, and real estate, many more than usual. Unfortunately, most are in unstable situations with one or two dojis in the previous two days. Further, there are many rising wedges on decreasing volume, and some of these doji-pairs are near or at daily resistance points which could become inflection points if broken.

It is amazing how all this converged with Fed day, simply amazing. I sense that some very good intraday trends will emerge out of this in the next 1-2 days, but I can’t tell which way. And it might depend on the Fed. Also some very good swing trends could emerge.

Departing from my normal practice of placing trends on the blog, tonight will show these setups. However, this is just to illustrate the instability. FAS or FAZ and URE or SRS will be my vehicles of choice, with maybe 1-2 exceptions. If you’re into individual stocks, some of these could produce swing trends worth 10-15%, which might exceed results from the ETFs, but who knows.

WFC: Earnings before market open (BMO). Don’t touch this unless you do it all the time.

BAC: Inflection point at 6.48, could go all “some” way.

PNC, JPM: Watch for breakdown of V-bottom potential. PNC earnings 2/3 BMO, unless it is changed. JPM could be good to 18ish.

FHN: Coiled from hell. Could go either way.

WL: Nice bear flag, good for test of 14. Earnings scheduled for Friday BMO.

NTRS: I don’t trust the reaction to earnings on 1/21 BMO. If fins implode before the 1/21 high is breached, 49 here we come.

CMA: Loving the super-unstable 2-day doji situation at falling MAs on daily, right after earnings on 1/22 BMO. Could be good for a short to 14.50 at least.

STI: Continuation short.

STT: Watch for rollover. Could be good to 15.

GS: Wedging a bit like JPM.

MS: MUCH more bullish than most banks and fins.

PFG: Wedging on decreasing volume.

COF: Free-fall, but could be good for more daytrades (or a squeeze!).

Check for yourself the similar situations in Real Estate stocks.

** Disclosure: At the time of this post the author is flat. **

Utah Medical Trip Update – 1.05.09

Longer update this time because I forgot to do a video last trip (11.09.08). Includes some special footage from the trip!

read more on my blog: flyboysfund.jeffreylin.net or FINZ.tv/POSSE Trader’s Blog

(featuring “California Rain” by the Rescues)


Jeffrey Lin’s Utah Medical Trip Update – 1.5.09 pt. 1 from Jeffrey Lin on Vimeo.


Jeffrey Lin’s Utah Medical Trip Update – 1.5.09 pt. 2 from Jeffrey Lin on Vimeo.

Guest Post: TraderAlamo’s “OBAMA. Obama Backs All Manufacturers in America.” from FINZ.tv’s Blog

** I’m headed back to Utah for more medical tests this week. My partner in FINZ.tv, TraderAlamo, has stepped in for me with this great analysis of Obama infrastructure plays. TraderAlamo’s pick is Mexican cement-maker Cemex (CX), and he lays out a strategy for trading Cemex based on current technical conditions of the stock.  Welcome TraderAlamo! Follow him on Twitter! And be sure to sign up for the premier of FINZ.tv!

SCUBA. Self Contained Underwater Breathing Apparatus.

SNAFU, in military terms, simply meant situation normal, but American GI’s during World War II referred to SNAFU as Situation Normal All Fouled Up (I’ve cleaned up the word ‘foul’ a bit) to mock the U.S. Army’s penchant for acronyms. The trading community has always latched on to these acronyms as investing themes to identify hot sectors. BRIC, Brazil-Russia-India-China, was the dominant acronym prior to the slow-mo crash of ’09. In the absence of ANY monolithic trading themes, as the trend was simply DOWN, there has been a subtle theme to the rally in equities from the October panic lows.

OBAMA. Obama Backs All Manufacturers in America. The simple reasoning is the new President-elect’s potential creation of jobs via attention to the deteriorating U.S. infrastructure. (Aside: The boom of the 1920’s was the greatest building effort since that of Emperor Flavian’s Rule during the Roman Empire, and it was easily the most ambitious ever.) Sounds like I’m building to some fundamental thesis on where to invest, right? Wrong! This will only tell us what stocks to look at as trading vehicles. The fruition of this plan is not important to a trader, nor is its failure. What we are playing is the perception that traders will gravitate to the names that they feel may have some visibility going forward. The list of names to play include: CAT, JEC, TEX(think highways), SGR, FWLT, TXI, FLR, ACM(think overpass and bridge repair), X, CLF. Beyond these names would be cement, aggregate material or any company that could conceivably be contracted to repair, upgrade or construct any aspect of our infrastructure from roads to energy to electricity grids. Oddly enough, one name that could be flying under the radar as a beneficiary to OBAMA resides in our neighbor to the south, Mexico.

Cemex (CX) stealth Obama Play

Cemex (CX) stealth Obama Play

Cemex (CX) currently has an attractive daily pattern, and, with the world of cement manufacturers having merged dramatically, there are few pure cement plays. In all likelihood, we will not be able to produce all the cement for our infrastructure needs, and CX sits firmly positioned to benefit. We wanted to highlight this play on Thursday before Friday’s move as the intraday charts were perfectly aligned, but we were concerned about recommending names in a light volume environment. Notice the high volume reversal from early October then a retest that triggered a Grail buy signal (fancy name for a rare buy indicator). On Friday Cemex broke higher from a bullish flag(highlighted by blue line segments), but we are still concerned about volume as it decreased since the breakout. Also take note of the 50 day SMA as it has now turned up. With the market at an extreme overbought reading we remain cautiously bullish. This market would not be easy to play if it works higher from here because we would have to reach a bit for certain names. Ms. Market, however, loves to travel the path of maximum pain, so we would still be ready to attack longs via confirmed INTRADAY patterns. CX could potentially be headed to the 12-14 area to approach resistance if the market were to march higher from here. If the market were to pullback on lighter volume, we would look to the nature of the selling in CX to see if volume increased. A lighter volume pullback towards the 50 SMA would offer up a chance to enter a low risk high reward trade for the market’s newest acronym: OBAMA.

** For infrastructure sector analysis from the point of view of an engineer, read our own Jeffrey Lin‘s old post: “Subprime” NOT the headline from Honeywell’s quarter – Part 2: Strength in Energy, Construction, and Infrastructure
** Remember certain details of Jeffrey’s analysis have changed as the market deteriorated significantly since the time of the post. This is for reference only in order to obtain a general understanding of the sector.

Don’t forget to sign up for the Premier of FINZ.tv!

** Disclosure: no positions in the stocks mentioned as of 01/05/09, but positions may be taken as trades **