Belated Update from June 1st Utah Medical Trip. New plan/regiment including increased Cyclosporin dosage to 125mg from 100mg, starting Gastrocrom and Epiceram, and UV light treatment soon. Getting help from new doctors now here in SoCal who are working with Dr. Gleich and Dr. Leiferman in Utah. Also, more allergy blood tests done with updated allergic IgE values and some good news Thanks everyone for the love and support. I’m not sure why I’m still alive…and the doctors say the same thing. Doesn’t matter why-just matters that I am alive and hope I can do the best with this life I got back and somehow help those that are still suffering as I did (and am) for 26 yrs…
The leader of the nation’s largest veterans organization says he is “deeply disappointed and concerned” after a meeting with President Obama today to discuss a proposal to force …
GO TO PART 2 If you’ve read my bio, you’ll know I’ve been very sick the last few years, confined to my home, and learned to trade because of it. When I heard James “Rev Shark” DePorre’s story of learning to trade after going deaf, losing his job, and his wife, I could relate (except the wife part). But other than his hearing, I guess Rev’s health was ok. Mine’s not. Here’s my story. I wrote this for a trader friend of mine. However, it seemed fitting to post it here today, on my birthday, as I reflect on all that has transpired.
Why do we trade? There are as many reasons as there are traders, but the reasons are probably similar. Intrigue, gambling, occupation, and, for a few, because you’re actually great at it. In early 2006, a few months after college, I dipped my toe in the markets for sanity. I traded to escape reality. I traded to have a purpose. I traded so the people on CNBC could keep me company.
I was a complete market retard at first. Didn’t even know how to use Yahoo! Finance. True, in addition to engineering, I majored in mathematical economics, but I never cared much for finance. Only spent an hour per week on finance versus seventy or eighty on engineering. Being an engineer was my dream. Always loved figuring stuff out, having some vision in my mind, then seeing it come to life. Same reason graphic/web design was a hobby- I got to share my visions with others. But finance? Did it because I promised my dad I would.
So you ask, Jeff, why do you trade now? In short, life happened. I was born with asthma as well as severe skin and food allergies. I took a gamble on an immunosuppressant shot to deal with my allergies, hoping for a chance at a normal life. I wanted do what my friends were doing. Brand spanking new careers. Grad schools. Or just going out. But this shot nuked my life. My health, which had been sliding downhill since birth, simply fell off a cliff. My life and dreams went with it.
I looked like I had third degree burns or worse. Not a single clear patch of skin anywhere, only infections and leaking wounds that wouldn’t heal. My system was in chaos. Everything doctors tried made it worse, including the steroids I’d fall back on during emergencies such as this. Painkillers were off limits too. I was constantly itching and in pain. My mind also started to go. I didn’t know who I was, couldn’t comprehend much at times, and had trouble forming coherent speech. It might’ve been side effects from the shot, or simply a hysterical panic attack. I couldn’t cope with my new reality. I couldn’t see tomorrow. Little Orphan Annie stopped singing. Like P.O.W.’s, I felt “broken.” For two years, until a few months ago, I barely left my house, my room, and often had trouble just getting out of my chair.
One afternoon during these “early days” after “the shot,” I halted my channel surfing on CNBC to the screaming of Mad Money’s Jim Cramer. The show was packed with information and, for the first time in months, I didn’t feel brain-dead. At that moment, I became involved with the market. Doesn’t matter what people say about Cramer, even if every call he makes from now on is wrong, Cramer has my deepest gratitude for doing Mad Money that day.
I couldn’t have discovered the markets at a better time. Days get pretty long for someone without a job and can’t run the errands that fill up people’s days. Friends I’d chat with online had moved on with new lives. I woke up at odd hours while my parents were asleep, losing a bit more of my mind everyday as the loneliness set in. The markets gave me something to focus on, and it was accessible online. Like most beginners, I started on Yahoo! Finance. I signed up for way too many newsletters, forums, and even the Wall Street Journal. My dad had bits and pieces left from a portfolio he owned during the tech bubble. This was my starting capital.
I dove into it like every other naïve, innocent novice out there. Just because analysts and newsletters said Caterpillar’s stock was a buy, I believed them. I love the big yellow “CAT” dumptrucks. They were everywhere on National Geographic and Discovery shows! I sold the shattered pieces of MRV Communications my dad still had, and bought Caterpillar, all at once. Yes, everyone knows that’s a very bad idea, but I didn’t. I really didn’t know anything. Seemed ok at the time. The markets kept going up in spring of ’06. Easy! Sure helped my self-confidence and emotions. I thought, maybe I could make a living from my room! I saw other stocks, like Peru’s Southern Copper, go up everyday, much faster than my Caterpillar. China needed a lot of copper to build a city a day? It made sense. I bought the story and the stock. Again, bad idea. I know.
Focusing on the markets helped me get through the day. Any little thing that went my way was a big boost because everyday my health got worse. My body was simply overwhelmed by infections and allergies. I wasn’t handicapped, but my parents had to do everything for me, especially since I couldn’t touch water (hadn’t been able to for years). I was so weak my kneecaps would pop if I forgot to clench my muscles for even a moment. I hobbled to the bathroom or crawled there on my elbows. My skin was rotting, especially on the legs where I had the shots, and considered amputation. I was constantly on edge, uncertain of what I had to face tomorrow. Sometimes I wished I had cancer. At least I’d know what I had.
My sleep schedule was random. When I wake up or pass out was up to my body, not me. I was always exhausted, staying awake for only a few hours. I was mostly nocturnal. Daylight gave me migraines. The daytime heat irritated my rashes and often caused hot flashes.
Everyday I was woken up by pain, then cried out in pain while bandaging myself for the next hour. By the time I was done, my heart felt like it’d go into shock, and I’d collapse in front of the TV. I’d turn on CNBC, watching Squawk Box (3am here on the west coast) or a late replay of Mad Money. The anchors at CNBC were the only people I saw everyday and the only familiar voices I’d hear. They became my “friends”: Joe’s unique sense of humor; Mark’s quirky attitude; Erin’s engaging interviews; Dylan’s intuitive explanations. I even watched WorldWide Exchange from 1-3am. Yes, Ross Westgate in London, someone in California knows who you are!
These wonderful people kept me sane, and I dreaded the weekends when they were off air. When they were, I’d do research mostly by listening than web browsing. My eyelids hurt, and so did my bandaged fingers. I played Jim Cramer’s “Real Money” radio show (which he was still doing at the time) on weekdays, and conference call after conference call on weekends. Boring? No kidding! But I didn’t hurt as much when I had voices to focus on.
The good times making money on Southern Copper lasted for all of two weeks. The markets, especially metals like copper, went down hard in Summer ’06. My plan of buying, holding, making money, and living off of my “investments” suddenly sucked big time. The portfolio was worth less everyday. I couldn’t understand why. The “work” I did for months seemed worthless. (I realize now it’s just part of the job.) I was frustrated I couldn’t talk to the people on CNBC, or anyone, about this. I was angry I couldn’t be up while the markets were open, often thinking “if only…” Even when I was awake, I’d forget what I was doing. As I said, my mind wasn’t always there. This stress wasn’t healthy and I got even sicker. I couldn’t take it anymore. I sold Southern Copper and others I’d lost the most on…at the bottom. By the end of the year, Southern Copper had nearly doubled from where I sold it.
Everyone’s been there. Bought at the top, sold at the bottom, lost money, only to watch it go back up and laugh in your face. I felt worse because it was “my dad’s money.” Like everyone else, I wanted to give up, but I had something going for me. Something more painful than losing money: my reality. I needed the markets to focus on.
My mom said to consider the loss as tuition paid. I had learned a lot. I learned not to get emotionally married to any stock. I learned to sell, to think for myself, and to get back in.
It was impossible to watch the markets all day, even though I was always home. I worked around my unpredictable hours, taking a longer term “investing” view. I bought stocks I wouldn’t be afraid and confused about if they went down while I slept. Going along with my nocturnal hours, I caught up on news in the peace and quiet of the night, away from the market frenzy during the day. I even thought of myself as a “Night Trader,” the slow, languid counterpart of hyperactive “Day Traders.” I still bought and sold when I felt necessary, doing this early in the morning if I could. When there were economic or company announcements, I tried to get up for them. Then I’d pass out again.
Finally by the fall, my health stopped getting worse thanks to help from QiGong (Chinese internal energy exercises). Things weren’t rosy, but they weren’t in freefall anymore. That’s enough sometimes. My health improved a bit, then deteriorated some, but the worst was behind me. My portfolio made up some lost ground too, ending down slightly for 2006. Not bad for my first year, all things considered. PART 2 COMING TOMORROW Videos Tracking My Health Developments
“Historic day” definitely refers to the global coordinated interest rate cut by the U.S., England, Europe, and China- the four most influential economies of our day. I was joking on my Twitter feed how exciting it was that China joined the “Allied Forces.” Yeah, the rate cuts probably took the world a step back from the cliff of a worldwide deep recession, but the positive benefits of the cuts, if any, probably won’t be felt for months and months. What mattered more for me today, and probably for those who monitor their investment accounts closely, it was just good to have a day where we weren’t in freefall. Down 200 on the DOW is never a happy day, especially working off a DOW 9450 base rather than a DOW 13000. Despite the last hour selloff, there was sustained buying for the later half of the day after the initial selloff. That was encouraging. People weren’t just letting things free fall anymore. A lot of stocks were actually up today- stocks that haven’t seen the (green) light of day for quite a while now. Many of these have been blown back to levels of 2, 3, or more years ago where there was sustained buying interest, so maybe those acted as temporary support as well.
So, I grabbed a stock screen off of FinViz.com (the coolest free financial website) of the stocks that were up today. These might indicate where some buying interest are, and where long term holders have felt the stocks have gotten back to prices where they’d buy them. Also, a lot of these stocks were held by liquidating hedge funds and, at least for today, they’ve stopped liquidating. Doesn’t mean they, or their copycat funds, won’t. So there’ll likely be a lot of resistance (sellers selling into strength). But after the bounce today and the sellers do their thing, if these levels can hold I’ll dip into a few of these.
About half the list the screen turned up were basic materials stocks (probably another interest rate cut = lower dollar = higher commodities). A lot of the basic material stocks were the gold miners, f.y.i.
Screen: Market Cap Over $300mln, Relative Volume over 1.5x average
TRANSCRIPT (for the hearing impaired):
Hey everyone, this is Jeffrey Lin coming to you on location from the University of Utah guest house. How about that view of Salt Lake City in the background huh?!? Can’t help but feel good with scenery like that!
Today’s Wednesday September 9th, 2008. I’ve been here for 2 days- flew into Salt Lake Monday morning. This video is just to update everyone who loves me about this 3rd trip to the University of Utah medical center. Read the rest of this entry »
Any thoughts on ETFs or other vehicle that might be available or are individual companies the only play?
Actually…this might be a crazy idea but… how about GE? More and more of their portfolio is geared towards global industrial and infrastructure needs. Oil, petrochemical, aerospace, engines, railroad components. Restructuring to spin off it’s legacy, dead-weight consumer appliances businesses. They have so many businesses that they’re almost like a ETF. GE’s finance arm took down the rest of the company, the good infrastructure parts of the company. But for those who are looking for the recovery and best long-term gain in the financials, why not GE- with a finance division AND great infrastructure?
Weird idea not being mentioned…but love to hear pros and cons….
Jim Cramer has always said, its not “buy and hold” but “buy and homework.” Too many “investors” do not know what they own when they buy a stock, which is just reckless, but I don’t think its completely their fault. Most people don’t now how to do proper research, or have the background to understand how to do it. Even my friends who work at mutual funds often ask me where I get my info for the analysis I put on this site. This is why I started SuckingLess.com - an investor research and education magazine/community.
SuckingLess.com is a collection of the best industry and company websites to learn about the companies you own. When you own a stock, you’re, in a sense, an owner in the company. So, you should at least understand the basics of the business or industry, which means you should probably read what someone who works in that industry would read. Still, this ISN’T you’re actual job and making it so would be too time consuming, so I’ve also tried to filter SuckingLess.com to have only the most relevant and easiest to understand websites.
I want SuckingLess.com to be a COMMUNITY, a tool for ALL OF US. So, I invite everyone to come and participate on the site, SUBMIT your favorite research resource to help others learn the way I’m trying to get this started with my own favorite bookmarks. Please RATE the sites you’ve used before to help others know what’s most useful, and leave comments on how you’re using the sites or anything you’ve learned. Again, to help others. I’m sure you’ll learn something from the site, so give back a little and share your investing knowledge and experience with us! Sometimes its not immediately obvious what you can learn from a website, so give people a little insight too if theres a special way you’ve found to tap into the markets with a certain website.
Finally, PLEASE PLEASE send me feedback on how to make the site more useful to you. This is a tool for all of us, so lets make this what WE need to do the best research. And get your friends and trading buddies to help build SuckingLess.com too. Thanks and hope this is what we all need to become better investors, i.e. Suck Less!
P.S. 90% of mutual funds underperform the markets…so sucking is not something to be ashamed of. We just have to suck less as we learn more.
Finding my comfort zone. Restructuring the portfolio to suit my strong point. Not trying to run a diversified portfolio. I’m not running this for retirement. Its a specialized fund in science, engineering, and technology. Most picks here are for the long term, looking at supercycles of 7-14 years that will dwarf the credit crisis we have now, which is already making Paul Bunyan look like a baby (much much bigger, and hairier).
Union Pacific (UNP) - Weak dollar. Lets keep exporting stuff! Maybe some lead back to China? Just kidding. How about just some POT(ash).
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) - If you saw how excited the CEO was on Fast Money talking about the potential growth, you’d think he was smoking some. Perfect explanation of the growth: once people taste meat, they don’t go back. Meat requires several times more grains to produce. Show me the POT baby.
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) - Steel producers being able to raise prices? I think the real beneficiary here is Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (aka CVRD). CVRD is the hand that’s squeezing the toothpaste of steel producers’ margins. I don’t think steel producers want to raise prices. Commodity prices are forcing them to. They’re just passing on CVRD’s price hikes, not really expanding margins and making more mula.
Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP) - Riding the commercial airplane replacement and buildout cycle. Also, essential for the furnaces going into the power plants popping up in China every 2 weeks.
ABB Ltd. (ABB) - Perfect play on the power grid (along with PCU and PCP), both the decaying ones in the U.S. and the new grids to be build in China, India, Russia, Europe, Mid East, and Latin America. A growth-value. Hard to say that about many stocks. A lot of advanced energy-generation and energy-conservation technologies no one talks about.
Foster Wheeler, Ltd. (FWLT) - No MDR, but should approach MDR’s perfection with the opportunities in the Middle East and especially in Asia. The new products they’re pushing including the CFB and Pluto platforms should help margins & efficiency explode.
McDermott International Inc. (MDR) - 4000% over 5 years, and still trading at the lower end of it’s P/E range. This should not be classified as a Engineering & Construction company. It’s a highly efficient mass (low cost) producer of oil & gas infrastructure.
TransOcean, Inc. (RIG) - love National Geographics’ “Oil, Sweat, and RIGs” series.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) - Natty (natural gas) is so much cheaper on a BTU energy basis than oil. L.A.’s Long Beach harbor is already switching to NatGas for clean energy, other municipalities will do the same.
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) - CdTe is the RIGHT semiconductor material for capturing solar energy, silicon is not. Simple as that.
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (LLL) - Best defense contractor. Period. Little to no operational risk and in a highly efficient niche of government contracts. No design and manufacturing problems that everyone from Lockheed Martin (LMT) to Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Boeing (BA) deal with daily. Raytheon (RTN) could have been like LLL, except RTN’s management prefers to run RTN like feudalism Japan.
Corning Inc. (GLW) - How awesome is that signal on the oscilloscope for the ClearCurve optical fibers?!?!!! THAT…is what gives engineers wet dreams.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) - iPhone should NOT a smartphone and shouldn’t be compared to a Blackberry (RIMM) or a Nokia (NOK) product. The iPhone is a full-fledged tablet PC with a complete operating system.
FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN) - Anticipating lots of legal activity required in the aftermath of the credit/mortgage apocalypse. Municipals suing financial corporations, corporations restructing, etc.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) - Attempt to be the vulture, not the meat in this credit crisis. I can take the pain. No pain no gain.
Hologic Inc. (HOLX) - @ forefront of women’s diagnostics technology. Because like most people, I have a mother.
Altria Group Inc. (MO) - Yield, weak dollar, defensive diversification. Don’t smoke. It’ll make you ugly…like a camel.
Thanks everyone for the love and support. I’m not sure why I’m still alive…and the doctors say the same thing. Doesn’t matter why-just matters that I am alive and hope I can do the best with this life I got back and somehow help those that are still suffering as I did (and am) for 26 yrs…
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