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UpStart Trader Provides Some Historical Perspective on Bear Market Bottomings

This post was written back in January by UpStart Trader, but it’s probably more relevant now than at the beginning of the year.  We’re obviously in the center of a critical moment in history.  Few if any of us can honestly say we’ve been in situations like this and know what to expect…but the next best thing is knowing your history. While the situation is unique, human behavior doesn’t change all that much.

History of US Bear Markets

(formerly known as) Merrill Lynch – Power & Gas Leaders Conference…Here I Come!

All set for the (formerly known as) Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference!  I’m trying to sound excited like I WAS maybe a month ago…but with the world’s economy/financial markets imploding before our eyes, it kinda dwarves everthing.  A couple of companies even withdrew from the conference, or, like Constellation (CEG) who simply got bought by Warren Buffet.  Reliant (RRI) isn’t on the presenter’s list anymore, and Entergy (ETR) isn’t either.  Still, there are more presentations and breakout sessions that I want to be at than I have time for, so yes, I’m certain there’ll be tons of exciting stuff I can report back to y’all.  Follow my Tweets on Twitter during the day incase I don’t have time to update my blog till I get back on Thurs or Friday.

I’m taking requests for any Merrill Lynch memorabilia!  Email me your sizes or color preferences!  I’ll try to schnitzle whatever I can before they use a sharpie to write Bank of America over everything!

Ok, hope there’s still a market by the time I land tomorrow at 5pm Eastern!  Stay in your foxholes everyone and goodluck.  I’m glad I’m in 95% cash, but I’m still scared.  Maybe being in the conference all day TWOsday and Wednesday will be good for me…hide out in the conference room till the bombings stop and the smoke clears.

Personally, this is a great achievement- being able to leave the house, but to go all the way to New York and do work, is nothing short of a miracle. Just four months ago, before I met the doctors at the University of Utah Medical Center, I’d fallen back to the worst condition I’ve ever been in, none of my medications were working, and I honestly didn’t know how I’d live to see tomorrow.   Long time readers of my blog know I’ve been really sick since early 2006 and was confined to my room, which is why I started trading and blogging- to keep my sanity.  So, even with the world collapsing around us, it’s a great first step for me- a first step towards hope of a normal life! So even if we wake up to a world that’s significantly different tomorrow, at least now I have hope I can be one to help pull others along rather than the one needing to be pulled.  Even when the market neared death last Thursday and the VIX hit cougar levels of 42, it still felt like one of the best days for me to be alive compared to the darkest days of the past 2.5 years.  Just glad to be alive.

Thanks Joe, for making this trip happen.  Means infinitely more than I can express here.

**Disclosure: no positions in the stocks mentioned**


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Purchasing.com Price & Supply Alert – 9/18/08

In a market that’s been 90% panic and cannibalism, it’s hard to think any fundamentals matter anymore. I’m not sure when and how fundies will come back into play as the shockwaves of the financial collapse around the world has very very real effects in the real world. Still, I like keeping an eye on this stuff.

Sorry haven’t been posting much exactly because of the madness.  Just been making tiny “bunts” or “single hits” day trades and posting these throughout the day on my Twitter feed- follow me on Twitter! or check my Twitter feed here on the top left column.  Other than that, I like hiding in my foxhole, eating some marshmellows, listening to some She & Him (I didn’t know actress Zooey Deschanel was such a good singer!), watching Erin Burnett on CNBC, and waiting for the world to implode.  Hmm…Erin and Zooey do look kinda alike.  Nice.

Oh, prepping for my trip to NYC on Monday for the Merrill Lynch (MER) (well Bank of America (BAC) now I guess) Power & Gas leaders conference…except I dunno how many people will actually be there now as companies keep disappearing. Constellation (CEG) was supposed to be there…but Buffet just ate them today.  Kinda disappointed- I had done the homework on all these Utils.  Oh well, maybe Buffet will go instead for CEG….now that’d be uber awesome…and uber not happening.

Ok, back into my foxhole.

** Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned **

might GE be the best infrastructure investment thesis with a financial kicker

buyitcheap on seekingalpha asked on “Investing in Infrastructure” (a.k.a. “Infrastructure: Power Grids and Bridges” article I posted on July 31, 2008)

Any thoughts on ETFs or other vehicle that might be available or are individual companies the only play?

Actually…this might be a crazy idea but… how about GE? More and more of their portfolio is geared towards global industrial and infrastructure needs. Oil, petrochemical, aerospace, engines, railroad components. Restructuring to spin off it’s legacy, dead-weight consumer appliances businesses. They have so many businesses that they’re almost like a ETF. GE’s finance arm took down the rest of the company, the good infrastructure parts of the company. But for those who are looking for the recovery and best long-term gain in the financials, why not GE- with a finance division AND great infrastructure?

Weird idea not being mentioned…but love to hear pros and cons….

Rolling with the Transports: Rails and…Truckers?!?

Financials.  Oil.  Financials.  Oil.  Financials.  Dollar.  Oil.  Anyone look at the transports (IYT) lately?  Rails and truckers specifically? It’s as if fund managers have classified all stocks as financial trades or oil/dollar trades, and the media piles on and that’s all we ever hear about.  Doesn’t the individual industries and business fundamentals matter?  It doesn’t seem like it matters for a lot of sectors, but anyone look at the transports lately?  Rails and truckers specifically?  (Just these two because we have lost the airlines and autos to “the dark side” and its futile to try to mount a rescue mission anytime soon)

Union Pacific chart from StockCharts.com But rails!  One of the strongest, if not the strongest, old industrials sector charging ahead all year.  First riding the ag and coal momentum on the back of rising energy prices (which was sometimes weird because higher oil prices hurt the rails’ fuel input costs too).  Then, even as the ags and coal got kneecapped when energy rolled over in July, the rails kept going, probably on the idea that lower energy would boost the economy, or lower energy would lower the rails’ fuel costs.  It’s hard to make a correlation with any of these factors, and rarely do they work to trade off of in the stock price anyway.  Either way, the rails have been one of the few sectors constantly fighting back this bear market.  And look at the likes of Union Pacific (UNP)!  Tagging all time highs after a minor pullback that people thought meant the rails have finally given up the ghost and was about to roll over.

YRCW Stockcharts ChartMore impressive is what appears to be a bottom in the truckers and the likes of YRC Worldwide (YRCW).  Looks like an inverse head and shoulders bottom, or the Kilroy bottom as the editor of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee likes to call it.  Left shoulder: tried a bottom on January 4th, 2008.  Stock dived again, with the actual “head” bottom the week of March 18th.  Since then, it’s been making the right shoulder, i.e. higher lows.  And, finally in July, higher highs as oil broke down in these months, breaking through that $18-$20 resistance, where you see the high volume (committed capital at this price) to the left of the chart.  Interesting to note, though, that while YRCW seemed to have bottomed in March, it’s been able to make higher highs and higher lows in the face of that big runup of oil to that record $149 in this period!  A possible explanation might be retailers stocking inventory during this time to meet the demand from the rebate checks.  I’m not too sure that’s a good explanation as retailers have been going lean with their inventories all year.  If truckers’ stocks can rally in the face of rising oil, i.e. rise in the face of bad news, the bottom’s likely in?  If YRCW can pierce this $20 level to the upside with conviction, I’d hop on this puppy, along with UNP mentioned above as UNP breaks to a new range above its all time high.

Yesterday’s strong GDP showed that away from the financials’ damage epicenter, the U.S. economy is still chugging along great.  Which is probably what the Rails and Truckers have been telling us since March.  However, the Rails have been driven mostly from exports, whether it be large industrial machinery or coal and fertilizers.  That’s my area of concern as the global economy has obviously slowed, and the impact of Europe in a worse economic condition that the U.S. might bring.  The other leg of this transport trio I’d like to see support from is the shippers.  They’ve been weak most of the summer, and the analysis from the Imarex Report on Capital Link Shipping continues to show weakness in the shippers.  I’m having trouble seeing how the rails’ support from exports can continue if the shippers aren’t shipping the exports to the likes of China.  As I’ve said before, I think China just took a breather as it clamped down hard on its industrial activity for the olympics.  But it’s yet to be seen where the world supply/demand of goods and commodities evens out when China’s fully back online.  Did 2 weeks of Olympics slow China too much to recover, or will things come back as strong as ever?

I think the transports have been muddling up the Dow Theory of needing trend confirmation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT).  I believe that’s because the autos and airlines so much problems internally within their industry: union problems, factories fitted for too many SUV’s, airline mergers and bankrupcies.  However, with the autos and airlines near all time lows and basically flailing around as trading vehicles to play oil, I’d think you can sort of ex-out the effect of the autos and airlines.  So, moving forward, with the rails and truckers leading the transports…if the IYT can get above $98 and Dow Jones Industrial Average above 11,800 we might be looking at a confirmation rally?  Don’t want to anticipate anything in this market, but just thinking of things to look out for…

Related SuckingLess.com Research Tools:

** Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned. **

The Plot Thickens for the Mining Giants

Sure why wouldn’t Australia approve of Chinalco’s stake in Rio Tinto. Australia’s wealth has grown like a weed thanks to it’s biggest customer, China, and China’s buying of Australia’s commodities. So why not play buddy buddy with you’re biggest customer? Sure, other “developing countries” are growing too…and while this might sound awkward referring to a commie country like China…China’s actually good for it’s money. You don’t just want a customer that pays, but pays steadily and that you know they’re good for it. Some of the politically unstable countries? I dunno. Countries (well country- U.S.A.) with debt growing like a tumor? Not too sure either. But China, a country that’s growing fast and steadily, and strategizing around the world, such as with African nations, to secure it’s future growth, and with national reserves growing up the wazoo- just on interest alone. Yeah, I’d play buddy buddy with China too. It’s like in the old days how a king would send over his sister or daughter to marry another country’s royalty. In this case, I guess the princess’ name is Rio Tinto. But then eventually (well after a year or so) the two kingdom’s would be at war again and the sacrificial princess be killed. Let’s see how this modern remake plays out!

Australia approves Chinalco stake in Rio Tinto

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia has approved Chinese aluminum giant Chinalco’s recent purchase of a minority stake in Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), but warned the Chinese firm against buying more shares without prior approval.

State-owned Aluminum Corp of China (Chinalco), backed by U.S. peer Alcoa Inc (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), began amassing shares this year with the aim of taking up to 14.9 percent of Rio, the target of a $127 billion takeover bid from rival BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)

Full Article: Australia approves Chinalco stake in Rio Tinto

Related SuckingLess.com Research Tools:

Tracking this Oil Energy Commodity Bounce

As they say, when something goes up on bearish news, it’s probably time to buy. When they weren’t able to push oil lower today on that ridiculously huge build in crude inventories of 9M barrels, and oil actually ended higher, we might’ve found a short term bottom for oil and have begun the bounceback rally. Since oil’s the commodities General, all the commodities from energy to agriculture to metals bounced with vigor today. The commodities (and the companies fund managers treat like commodities- including my beloved McDermott, now in a wheelchair after having is legs cut out from under it) have dropped basically in a straight line since end of June/early July that a bounce was inevitable. Moreover, the commodities and the collateral damage of related names have fallen so far so fast, all so far below their 50 day moving average, 200 day moving average, you name it, that this countertrend rally would likely have some umph and last for a while. (Nucor closed at $52.5 and it’s 50 day moving average is nearly 20% higher around $63!) I’m ready to add to these sectors to ride the relief rally, but keeping in mind the magnificent commodities uptrend of the first half of the year has been broken. Unless there’s reason to believe otherwise, I shall treat this rally as what it is, a countertrend rally in a downtrending market, and sell into this rally.

However, I think there’s a good chance the commodities and their friends can re-take the uptrend. My calendar has just alerted me that Joe Terranova of CNBC’s Fast Money had called for natural gas to bottom this very week and to resume the uptrend began earlier this year. I mentioned this call Joe made in a previous post, where Joe alerted viewers to the natural gas rule of thumb “June highs July lows” at the end of June, telling people to take profits in natural gas right when natural gas looks like it could go up forever, but subsequently took a death dive from above $13 to below $8 in just a month or less. With the brunt of the hurricane season still to come in September and early October, and heating oil demand to drive oil demand in the winter, the coming months are usually bullish for energy. Now we just have to see how the price reacts to this bullish environment. If energy can’t re-take the uptrend in a bullish environment, it’s probably time to get out our parachutes and bail.

Anyway, yesterday was an interesting stabilization and reversal day. Even more impressive given the dollar didn’t fall (i.e move inversely to crude), thus possibly breaking the correlation between the dollar and oil. Looking forward to seeing how this develops!

Referenced SuckingLess.com Research Tools:

** Disclosure: I own shares of MDR as of this post **

Ingersoll Rand makes Appearance on “Four Energy Efficiency Trades for a Cool Summer” Redux

Industrial machinery conglomerate Ingersoll Rand (IR) will report second quarter earnings this morning. This is not an earnings preview post or comments about my expectations. Obviously this market is not right in the head, cookoo, insane, whatever you want to call it. So I’m not expecting the stock price to correlate with the fundamental story one way or another. I do want to point out to folks that Ingersoll Rand is a completely different beast that we’ve all known it as. No longer is it construction equipment or the road building machinery that we’ve all seen when driving around. While it still has a lot of those identifiably Ingersoll products, Ingersoll Rand went through a dramatic transformation this past year as it sold off Bobcat (small excavators and loaders) and acquired heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) maker Trane.

Folks should forget the old Ingersoll Rand and focus on the newly-acquired Trane business as that should be the pride and joy going forward. Trane was such a big acquisition that Trane is now the dominant business for Ingersoll Rand, and rightly so. HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) is a major component of both the infrastructure and energy theme, but a story which the media has chosen to neglect. Given the high energy prices, more attention should be paid to HVAC systems since the heating and cooling of buildings, homes, factories, etc. is actually the top user of energy in the U.S. All this talk of alternative fuels for our cars or solar power pales in comparison to the amount of energy we could save on heating and cooling buildings. Also, energy conservation rather than increasing energy production would lighten the load on our already failing power grid. Similarly, it would save costs as we wouldn’t have to build out our power grids and increase power generation capacities with new power plants, wind farms, solar panels, etc.

Last summer, I wrote an in-depth piece on this topic in Four Energy Efficiency Trades for a Cool Summer. I think it’s such a decently written piece that I’m not gonna do it again- just read it! But remember, Trane was a brand of American Standard at the time of the publication, but Trane is now part of Ingersoll Rand. So what was said about Trane now applies to Ingersoll Rand. In 2003, I was part of a team that conducted an energy efficiency study of the Keck Science Building of the Claremont Colleges (CA), working with both Trane and Johnson Controls (JCI) on proposed solutions. I can attest to the importance and viability of the HVAC system to increase energy efficiency.

For a closer look into the “new” Ingersoll Rand, Jim Cramer had a great Mad Money segment dedicated to it: The Great Transformation of Ingersoll-Rand. He explained it much better than I can. Take a gander. Or, read the segment’s transcript on Mad Money Recap.

Referenced Resources:

** Disclosure: I am long IR calls as of this post **

Infrastructure: Power Grids and Bridges

As readers of this site know, I am all about the infrastructure boom. Both for infrastructure growth to support the lighting speed growth in China, India, Mid East…and infrastructure repairs needed in the U.S. I am so convinced that this theme trumps all other investable themes out there that my portfolio is now concentrated on this theme, diversified only by the different components of the infrastructure buildout. First, my conviction is based on the fact that infrastructure is the foundation of modern civilization. We must keep our utilities running so we can have water and power. Witness the chaos in New Orleans after Katrina- New Orleans, a limited area, and yet the importance of our daily infrastructure necessities could not be more obvious. This leads to the second reason for conviction: governments must put infrastructure integrity as a top priority. Same for both the U.S., whose infrastructure needs massive repairs, and China, who is building cities daily. The fundamental need to have solid infrastructure means, to me, governments will finance these projects regardless of the economic conditions…baring a full scale global depression. Even in the depression, we completed big projects like the Hoover Dam, setting ourselves up for decades of power to fuel the growth in on the west coast. Thus, specific infrastructure plays should be relatively insensitive to the slowdown or recession if you look out 3-5 yrs. And although I’m don’t care much for the “long term” investment theories, for these companies you have to look out 3-5 yrs just because many of their projects take several years to complete. But yes, in the long term we’re all dead, so don’t just buy, hold, and forget!

POWER GRID

As just mentioned, the basic utilities are my #1 focus, and the power grid specifically.

“Demand for cable products in the developing regions of the world is being driven by high levels of energy infrastructure, construction and mining activities. Particular strength is coming from government sponsored infrastructure projects in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Additionally, the core infrastructure investment required for the upcoming 2010 World Cup soccer event in South Africa has added pressure to an already taxed energy grid that is also supporting growing mining activities in the region, resulting in increased spending for energy transmission and distribution as well as construction, said Mathias Sandoval, President and Chief Executive Officer, General Cable Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Mideast/Asia Pacific.” ~General Cable 2008 Q2 Earnings Release

I’ve written many times about the power grid, and the company ABB specifically as they’re one of the most exposed to this trend, but also because public companies with exposure to this theme has been hard to find. Woodward Governor, WGOV, this past quarter has shown to be a strong beneficiary in developing the wind power part of the power grid. I also like SPX corp (SPW) for its transformer business. Thomas & Betts (TNB) has a lot of the small electrical components and makes the huge towers for the transmission lines, but have yet to shown it is benefiting from the power grid repair and buildout. Possibly because a lot of it’s electrical components are also used in industrial and commercial buildings, which aren’t so hot anymore. Also, as more transmission lines are now buried underground rather than strung overhead by steel towers, TNB’s transmission tower growth might be limited. But other than that, it has been difficult to find suppliers of the “stuff” going into the power grid.

The most obvious “stuff” are the transmission lines we see everywhere. However, the biggest transmission line and cable producers, domestic and international, are divisions hidden within larger companies. For example, the biggest producer of copper cables is General Cable (BGC). However, it has so many other businesses and domestic infrastructure construction services that, to me, dilutes the value of the power grid cable business. Sort of like how GE’s finance division diluted the value of its strong global industrial and infrastructure business, but obviously not extreme. Note, though, that BGC bought Phelps Dodge’s copper cable business when Phelps Dodge merged with Freeport McMoran (FCX).

This growth was principally due to the acquisition of Phelps Dodge International Corporation (PDIC) in the fourth quarter of 2007, the Companys exposure to global electrical infrastructure markets and favorable foreign exchange translation partially offset by lower demand as a result of ongoing weak economic conditions primarily in the United States and Spain which are major markets for the Company. ~General Cable 2008 Q2 Earnings Release

In this one move, copper cables now is the dominating business in BGC, and BGC’s sales will be mostly international- some 64% in the last quarter. The reserve I have of jumping into BGC is whether they have the ability to grow or has become a large supplier of a commodity for the power grid. I have limited slots for power-grid stocks, and BGC isn’t replacing my ABB, WGOV, or SPW yet.

Along the same lines,

South Korean cable maker LS Cable has received regulatory approval from the U.S., Spain and Germany to acquire copper wiring firm Superior Essex and create the third-largest global maker of magnet, communication, industrial and building wire with pro forma consolidated annual revenues of almost $13 billion. ~ LS Cable is Buying Superior Essex, Purchasing.com

Thus, confirming the value of companies supplying power grid components, but many of which are private, international, or subsidiaries of bigger corporations.

BRIDGES

Like the Power Grid story, our road infrastructure repair and upgrade isn’t a question of IF, but WHEN. While companies like Terex (TEX) have taken a beating with the rest of the market, understand that a big wave of demand for road construction equipment is coming, and soon.

“A report from the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials estimates that $140 billion is needed today to repair all the nation’s bridges. An Associated Press report cites Federal Highway Administration statistics that 152,000 out of the nation’s 600,000 bridges are either structurally deficient or functionally obsolete.

Nearly 25% of the nation’s bridges need repairs, and the average age of America’s bridges is 43 years — seven years shy of the maximum age for which most are designed, according to the “Bridging the Gap” report. One in five U.S. bridges is more than 50 years old.” ~Repairing Bridges would cost $140 Billion, Purchasing.com

The U.S. government is good at just focusing on short term problems or worthless issues, but as more roads crack and bridges collapse, there’ll be another panic to deal with another crisis, and companies like TEX may benefit more than if these road repairs were done right now. A construction/repair binge would likely cause shortages of equipment just as the mining binge now (from decades of neglect to invest) is causing shortages of Joy Global (JOYG) and Bucyrus (BUCY)’s underground mining equipment.

Referenced SuckingLess.com Research Tools:

** Disclosure: I own shares of ABB, WGOV, SPX as of this post **

China’s Olympics Vacation – How Real is the Drop In Commodities and Inflation?

We all know the relief madness over the past week or so: oil got denied when it almost tapped $150 and dived to $123, taking down the rest of the commodities world- metals, agriculture, coal…you name it. Meanwhile, banks hit a trampoline and the XLF rebounded some 50% off the lows. Yes, it’s great to see gas here down to $4.59 from $4.89 just 2 weeks ago. Sure, maybe it’s the speculators the regulators have now caught, or maybe it’s money coming out to chase the banks off their lows.

But- what if it’s because China has halted a big chunk of it’s manufacturing to clear the air for the Olympics that starts exactly in 2 weeks? I haven’t figured out the effects yet. Just thinking what will happen starting September, when the Olympics are over, and the China manufacturing beast roars to life again? Devouring commodities for breakfast, lunch, dinner, and a midnight snack 7 days a week – because the Chinese are workaholics and wouldn’t know what to do if they had a day off? (I am serious – this is what my dad tells me from his business trips to China every 2 months) Sure, one could argue that China has been limiting it’s manufacturing to clean up it’s air since early in the year, yet commodities kept climbing. There probably was quite a bit of speculative money or money that sought safe haven away from the banks. However, China did not completely slam on the brakes till recently. And, had China not been slowing down it’s manufacturing all year, where would commodity prices be even without the speculative money? Would oil be at $150, and in that scenario NOT be due to speculation? Meaning, where should we expect commodities to rebound to once China goes full steam again?

Also, for those hoping China slowed down because the U.S. and Europe have slowed to a crawl, I beg you to do more research and think again. My dad and his business partners are having trouble placing their orders at factories in China because domestic demand is too strong. Factories are actually turning down orders for exports, the very exports that catapulted China’s economy to the fastest growing. If I had to place a wager, I’d bet China’s recent weakness is self-imposed for the Olympics, and not because it’s being dragged down by U.S. slowdown. Again, we Americans always thinking we’re the center of the world, and the rest of the world depends on us. This is a very dangerous tunnel vision and, as Mitt Romney said, will turn us into a second rate country like France in no time.

My dad is currently visiting factories in China, saying his factories have been required to set aside roughly ~20% of steel for China’s domestic use (so he can’t get his products made as they’re exported here to the U.S.) This restriction is because steel mills have been shut down to clear the air for the Olympics. Also, he says China is fixing steel prices 20% – 35% below market prices specifically for the earthquake rebuild. This is to ensure steel availability to the damaged areas.

This corresponds with the following reports from Capital Link Shipping’s Imarex report (yes, shipping research websites are great even if you’re not rolling the dice on a DryShips):

Steel mills affected by the Olympics have finally begun suspending production to ensure clean air in Beijing. Domestic Chinese steel consumption, although very strong, is also expected to come down a bit due to a normal summer lull in consumption. In addition, production costs (iron ore, coking coal, credit issues) and coke shortages are making it harder for small steel mills to keep up production. ~http://files.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/08l26Pvi9u/ImarexJuly22.pdf

And on the July 25h report:

All eyes are on China / Olympics. The skies in Beijing are still smoggy as hell, expectations point to a slowdown in industrial production, but no indication yet of any significant reduction in iron ore imports. The Chinese are good at always keeping us guessing. One important thing to point out: even if shortterm sentiment is a bit iffy, medium-term sentiment is really good considering the period activity we’ve been seeing. Interesting side note: for the most part, there’s a general consensus that dry bulk rates will trend sideways / fall for the Olympics, then rebounded significantly in the fourth quarter and approach record freight levels by the end of the year. ~http://files.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/08l26Pvi9u/ImarexJuly25.pdf

Be careful out there. And remember, don’t assume what seems the most logical, or what you want to believe, to be reality. The biggest risk is not knowing, so do your research.

Referenced SuckingLess.com Research Tool:

** Disclosure: no positions in the stocks mentioned **