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Me on CNBC Fast Money Optionmonster Largest Tweetup Ever Live NYC

Yes, at the last second, I took down a plane ticket and flew out to NYC on Jetblue’s redeye flight on Thursday night, landing in NYC Friday morning 4:45am for the CNBC Fast Money Optionmonster Largest Tweetup EVER! Why is it the largest tweetup ever you ask? Since we only had about 10 people? Because it’s the first Tweetup synchronized with a global cable show (CNBC’s Fast Money) at 5:00pm Eastern on 3/6/09.

Met a ton of my “twitter” trader friends at tweetup, including @TraderAlamo (Vincent Bagnato- My partner for FINZ.tv), @CoffeyGrinds (Andrew Coffey), @OptionMonster (Jon Najarian) @BullishBeauty (Carolyn Lloyd-Ferguson), @Barrieabalard, @ShaneDrozdowski, @Ferrari321 (Kevin Cheng), @theTrading (Dave Johnson), and @Millionare007 (John), @Alf2126 (Amanda) whose step-dad @jaycoje (Jason) called from Vegas for her to come down to Time Square and get him a Po-Baby (mortgage crash formula) Tshirt.

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Lots more videos and tweetup stories as well as stuff from Invest Like a Monster conference on Saturday 3/7/09! so stay tuned here and on FINZ.tv!

Here’s the uncensored version of Largest Tweetup Ever video by @Coffeygrinds (Andrew Coffey)! Thanks Andrew! Love it!

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Whew! Made it to 3rd week of FINZ.tv videos-Interviewing David Aferiat of Trade-Ideas.com at Macellera in Manhattan

After two crazy weeks, both in the markets and with me and Alamo trying to start up FINZ.tv, we’ve successfully kicked off the 3rd week of FINZ.tv! With ridiculous technology problems the first week when Vincent (@traderAlamo on twitter) tried to launch the show on his trip to Paris

then the cocky idea we could do 3 shows all last Sunday,

ETF in 60 UPDATE: Rewind the tape on SRS (ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate ETF) Trade

Multiplicity Ep.1: Whiffing Potash (POT) fertilizer for 10-mins, 30-mins, a whole day?

Trendlines Ep.1: Can China FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) Hold the Line against Evil Nemesis FXP

we thought we’d slow it down and focus on making a clean, high quality video for the 3rd week.

Having done technical analysis shows for the first two weeks, we’re starting to branch out to different type of shows as was our original plan for a “network” for FINZ.tv. So here it is! The first interview held for FINZ.tv, with our guest David Aferiat (@tradeideas on twitter) of Trade-Ideas.com. Actually shot this last Sunday, February 22nd 2009, yes-the same Sunday we tried to put out 3 shows which we did, only 6 hours too late when all the traders on the East Coast were sleeping already. (for interview transcript and pictures, visit the episode page)

Please stop by FINZ.tv this week.  We filmed our first “special” this weekend out in the streets of New York and should have that video out Monday or Tuesday.  As always, we’ll continue putting out trading opportunity webisodes.  Did y’all see how dead on we were with our first few videos?  Not to mention our FINZ.tv POSSE Traders Journal doesn’t seem to have a miss trade yet!  Almost sounds cocky huh?  It’s not that. It’s more like…I’m amazed how professional and detailed our traders/bloggers are so even in this nuttiest of markets we still got a good handle on how to trade it.

Most importantly, we’ll be at the OptionMonster/Fast Money tweetup and event for Jon Najarian, Pete Najarian, and Guy Adami’s “Invest Like a Monster” seminar.  The tweetup is this Friday outside the NASDAQ market site in Times Square during the Fast Money broadcast at 5pm, so come out and join us if you can!  Contact Andrew Coffey (@coffeygrinds on Twitter) for tweetup info.  The seminar is Saturday.

Historic Day Bouncers

“Historic day” definitely refers to the global coordinated interest rate cut by the U.S., England, Europe, and China- the four most influential economies of our day.  I was joking on my Twitter feed how exciting it was that China joined the “Allied Forces.” Yeah, the rate cuts probably took the world a step back from the cliff of a worldwide deep recession, but the positive benefits of the cuts, if any, probably won’t be felt for months and months.  What mattered more for me today, and probably for those who monitor their investment accounts closely, it was just good to have a day where we weren’t in freefall.  Down 200 on the DOW is never a happy day, especially working off a DOW 9450 base rather than a DOW 13000.  Despite the last hour selloff, there was sustained buying for the later half of the day after the initial selloff.  That was encouraging. People weren’t just letting things free fall anymore.  A lot of stocks were actually up today- stocks that haven’t seen the (green) light of day for quite a while now.  Many of these have been blown back to levels of 2, 3, or more years ago where there was sustained buying interest, so maybe those acted as temporary support as well.

So, I grabbed a stock screen off of FinViz.com (the coolest free financial website) of the stocks that were up today.  These might indicate where some buying interest are, and where long term holders have felt the stocks have gotten back to prices where they’d buy them.  Also, a lot of these stocks were held by liquidating hedge funds and, at least for today, they’ve stopped liquidating.  Doesn’t mean they, or their copycat funds, won’t.  So there’ll likely be a lot of resistance (sellers selling into strength).  But after the bounce today and the sellers do their thing, if these levels can hold I’ll dip into a few of these.

About half the list the screen turned up were basic materials stocks (probably another interest rate cut = lower dollar = higher commodities).  A lot of the basic material stocks were the gold miners, f.y.i.

Screen: Market Cap Over $300mln, Relative Volume over 1.5x average

No. Ticker Company Sector Industry Country Market Cap P/E Price Change Volume
1 ABX Barrick Gold Corporation Basic Materials Gold Canada 31.13B 16.77 35.71 17.08% 29,922,500
2 AEM Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Canada 7.26B 63.14 50.51 12.97% 7,672,300
3 ANR Alpha Natural Resources Inc. Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals USA 2.79B 24.01 39.62 10.79% 8,357,600
4 CAM Cameron International Corporation Basic Materials Oil & Gas Equipment & Services USA 6.21B 11.94 28.54 8.11% 11,076,900
5 AU AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. Basic Materials Gold South Africa 5.56B - 19.71 19.53% 3,736,000
6 AUY Yamana Gold, Inc. Basic Materials Gold Canada 5.25B 24.23 7.51 18.83% 34,883,100
7 CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals USA 3.24B 4.91 57.31 11.52% 9,480,800
8 CNX CONSOL Energy Inc. Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals USA 6.77B 38.49 36.95 11.26% 11,352,900
9 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Basic Materials Copper USA 16.36B 5.45 42.60 10.11% 33,631,000
10 GBN Great Basin Gold Ltd. Basic Materials Nonmetallic Mineral Mining Canada 340.85M - 1.61 11.03% 1,624,300
11 GFI Gold Fields Ltd. Basic Materials Gold South Africa 5.84B 10.16 8.94 32.05% 14,869,400
12 GG Goldcorp Inc. Basic Materials Gold Canada 22.10B 45.62 31.02 19.72% 30,307,500
13 GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Channel Islands 3.17B 74.29 41.60 22.79% 2,454,100
14 HMY Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. Basic Materials Gold South Africa 4.29B - 10.66 34.77% 8,845,900
15 HSVLY HIGHVELD STEEL ADR Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals South Africa 1.19B 8.65 12.02 9.57% 35,700
16 KGC Kinross Gold Corp. Basic Materials Gold Canada 9.97B 31.76 16.20 18.94% 19,087,400
17 KWK Quicksilver Resources Inc. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 1.95B 3.96 12.29 8.76% 6,945,500
18 LIHR Lihir Gold Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Papua New Guinea 34.77B - 18.30 10.17% 1,753,200
19 MON Monsanto Co. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals USA 44.79B 23.88 81.44 9.79% 27,036,900
20 NEM Newmont Mining Corp. Basic Materials Gold USA 16.95B 533.29 37.33 14.83% 16,291,200
21 POT Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals Canada 30.07B 15.60 98.60 13.52% 32,992,400
22 PXP Plains Exploration & Production Company Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 2.56B 5.24 23.75 9.45% 8,448,400
23 RGLD Royal Gold Inc. Basic Materials Gold USA 1.35B 59.30 39.73 16.00% 1,218,000
24 RRC Range Resources Corp. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 4.75B 78.56 30.64 9.27% 8,418,600
25 SD SandRidge Energy, Inc. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration USA 2.31B - 13.97 11.40% 10,866,200
26 SSRI Silver Standard Resources Inc. Basic Materials Silver Canada 835.66M - 13.33 10.53% 1,579,300
27 WLT Walter Industries Inc. Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals USA 2.02B 16.63 36.26 10.62% 5,429,000
28 XCO EXCO Resources Inc. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas USA 1.74B - 8.26 7.97% 8,203,600
29 SYT Syngenta AG Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals Switzerland 17.06B 12.17 36.02 7.14% 2,604,100
30 SPW SPX Corporation Consumer Goods Appliances USA 2.61B 7.57 48.13 7.72% 4,776,500
31 FBN Furniture Brands International Inc. Consumer Goods Home Furnishings & Fixtures USA 459.11M - 9.41 8.41% 1,899,900
32 GGP General Growth Properties Inc. Financial REIT – Retail USA 1.45B 21.60 5.40 20.00% 17,753,200
33 CBL CBL & Associates Properties Inc. Financial REIT – Retail USA 717.03M 22.06 10.81 19.84% 4,246,600
34 AOC Aon Corporation Financial Accident & Health Insurance USA 11.78B 20.10 42.42 8.27% 5,080,100
35 STT State Street Corp. Financial Regional – Northeast Banks USA 18.82B 10.43 43.60 9.14% 14,257,900
36 SLG SL Green Realty Corp. Financial REIT – Retail USA 2.85B 21.24 49.07 8.25% 1,763,200
37 RBS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Financial Foreign Money Center Banks United Kingdom 18.54B - 1.85 24.16% 14,986,300
38 XIDE Exide Technologies Industrial Goods Industrial Electrical Equipment USA 384.13M 7.61 5.10 7.37% 3,115,100
39 FLS Flowserve Corp. Industrial Goods Diversified Machinery USA 3.66B 9.93 63.84 12.12% 3,258,400
40 MELI Mercadolibre, Inc. Services Business Services Argentina 853.91M 77.12 19.28 8.50% 1,748,800
41 IRM Iron Mountain Inc. Services Business Services USA 5.51B 37.44 27.33 11.37% 2,735,600
42 DISH Dish Network Corp. Services CATV Systems USA 8.19B 8.54 18.19 7.44% 7,346,700
43 YRCW YRC Worldwide Inc. Services Trucking USA 362.01M - 6.32 26.91% 7,084,900
44 SYNA Synaptics Inc. Technology Business Software & Services USA 801.19M 31.26 23.76 10.05% 2,927,800
45 RHT Red Hat Inc. Technology Application Software USA 2.80B 38.55 14.65 8.76% 3,889,700
46 NTCT NetScout Systems Inc. Technology Business Software & Services USA 376.22M - 9.60 21.21% 745,100
47 PCLN Priceline.com Inc. Technology Internet Service Providers USA 2.47B 14.43 63.51 10.74% 3,897,600
48 PEGA Pegasystems Inc. Technology Business Software & Services USA 398.94M 39.25 10.99 7.43% 178,600
49 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Integrated Circuits USA 5.19B 8.07 22.99 11.12% 10,347,800
50 DASTY Dassault Systemes SA Technology Technical & System Software France 5.35B 19.01 45.25 8.93% 54,400
51 CLS Celestica Inc. Technology Printed Circuit Boards Canada 1.20B 10.92 5.24 8.94% 3,341,700
52 CNQR Concur Technologies, Inc. Technology Technical & System Software USA 1.56B 92.88 31.58 7.78% 1,970,100
53 ARBA Ariba Inc. Technology Internet Software & Services USA 942.45M - 10.96 8.51% 2,530,800
54 ATML Atmel Corp. Technology Semiconductor – Broad Line USA 1.84B 103.00 4.12 8.71% 7,950,700
55 CBR CIBER, Inc. Technology Information Technology Services USA 337.29M 11.26 5.63 7.85% 666,500
56 CEL Cellcom Israel Ltd. Technology Wireless Communications Israel 2.97B 10.86 30.40 7.61% 414,700
57 LDK LDK Solar Co.Ltd. Technology Diversified Electronics China 2.29B 8.49 21.48 11.18% 4,630,500
58 FORM FormFactor Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Broad Line USA 816.85M - 16.65 12.27% 1,462,600
59 BRKS Brooks Automation Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials USA 464.21M - 7.30 7.20% 1,201,400
60 AYE Allegheny Energy Inc. Utilities Electric Utilities USA 5.08B 9.90 30.10 8.63% 7,126,500

Please visit my stock research tools site, SuckingLess.com, for more resources like FinViz.com

**Disclosure: no positions in stocks mentioned.**

(formerly known as) Merrill Lynch – Power & Gas Leaders Conference…Here I Come!

All set for the (formerly known as) Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference!  I’m trying to sound excited like I WAS maybe a month ago…but with the world’s economy/financial markets imploding before our eyes, it kinda dwarves everthing.  A couple of companies even withdrew from the conference, or, like Constellation (CEG) who simply got bought by Warren Buffet.  Reliant (RRI) isn’t on the presenter’s list anymore, and Entergy (ETR) isn’t either.  Still, there are more presentations and breakout sessions that I want to be at than I have time for, so yes, I’m certain there’ll be tons of exciting stuff I can report back to y’all.  Follow my Tweets on Twitter during the day incase I don’t have time to update my blog till I get back on Thurs or Friday.

I’m taking requests for any Merrill Lynch memorabilia!  Email me your sizes or color preferences!  I’ll try to schnitzle whatever I can before they use a sharpie to write Bank of America over everything!

Ok, hope there’s still a market by the time I land tomorrow at 5pm Eastern!  Stay in your foxholes everyone and goodluck.  I’m glad I’m in 95% cash, but I’m still scared.  Maybe being in the conference all day TWOsday and Wednesday will be good for me…hide out in the conference room till the bombings stop and the smoke clears.

Personally, this is a great achievement- being able to leave the house, but to go all the way to New York and do work, is nothing short of a miracle. Just four months ago, before I met the doctors at the University of Utah Medical Center, I’d fallen back to the worst condition I’ve ever been in, none of my medications were working, and I honestly didn’t know how I’d live to see tomorrow.   Long time readers of my blog know I’ve been really sick since early 2006 and was confined to my room, which is why I started trading and blogging- to keep my sanity.  So, even with the world collapsing around us, it’s a great first step for me- a first step towards hope of a normal life! So even if we wake up to a world that’s significantly different tomorrow, at least now I have hope I can be one to help pull others along rather than the one needing to be pulled.  Even when the market neared death last Thursday and the VIX hit cougar levels of 42, it still felt like one of the best days for me to be alive compared to the darkest days of the past 2.5 years.  Just glad to be alive.

Thanks Joe, for making this trip happen.  Means infinitely more than I can express here.

**Disclosure: no positions in the stocks mentioned**


Created with flickr slideshow.

Badger Meter Profits Keep Flowing, up 29% in Q2

Badger meter is popping a nice 9% today on strong Q2 earnings. Compared to Q2 of 2007, Q2 2008 sales are up 20.1%, net earnings up 28.8%, and EPS up 26.3%. These results are in the face of what appeared to be a challenging environment for utility and industrial component suppliers. Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) confirmed the decrease in utility and local municipal spending (local municipalities have been hit by the credit crisis and the decrease in tax revenues due to rising foreclosures). However, Badger Meter showed us that water utilities are still buying the small infrastructure components such as meters and valves, even as larger projects such as those Chicago Bridge & Iron is involved in are being scrapped. This is another reminder of the big sea change I’ve been concerned with for a while: U.S. infrastructure is deteriorating fast and must be replaced and upgraded. If new big projects such as new utility stations or pipelines have to be canceled, that puts even more pressure on the existing system, requiring advanced technology such as Badger Meter’s AMR (Automatic meter reading) technology to make the existing system more efficient and reliable. Badger Meter also mentioned strength in precision valves and flow sensors due to the continued demand in the petroleum industry.

Also, Badger Meter’s recent acquisition of an automatic metering infrastructure (AMI) system is looking good. Watch for accelerating growth in this product line.

The majority of Badger’s sales are domestic, which is where the weakness concerns have been.  International infrastructure should still be strong across the board.  So if Badger can find strength in the U.S. domestic market, this is a good omen for both Flowserve (FLS) and SPX Corp (SPW), who are leaders in flow technology.

More on Badger Meter:

Additional Water Utility Resources featured on SuckingLess.com Research Tools

**Disclosure: I own shares of FLS and SPW as of this post**

ABB acquires U.S. Transformer Company Kuhlman Electric Corporation for America Presence

Transformers Optimus PrimeABB finally made the move I’d hope they make! In this A.D.D. market only able to focus on 2 things: financials and oil, great things are happening at individual companies and not even registering on the radar. ABB acquires U.S. transformer company Kuhlman Electric Corporation. This is one of the sweetspots (of the limited investable opportunities) for the power grid upgrade and buildout. I own SPX Corp (SPW) exactly for their transformer business, SPX Corp’s fastest growing business:

“Our Industrial Products and Services segment had revenues of $966.4, $836.7 and $716.0 in 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively. Of the segment’s 2007 revenue, approximately 44% was from the sale of power transformers into the US transmission and distribution market.” ~SPX Corp’s 2007 10-K

One of my very first blog post dealt with the twin drivers for the power grid infrastructure suppliers: U.S. power grid outdated by some 30 yrs, always using near capacity and a system shock away from massive destructive blackouts. The complementary driver: BRIC (and then some..Mid East especially, no one talks about Saudi Arabia building 4 Dubai like cities….) countries building whole CITIES, of which the power grid is the foundation.

The problem with investing on this theme was Read the rest of this entry »

Engineering/Tech Linkage: Boeing reduces Fuel and Carbon Emissions with Air Traffic Control management

Non-stock related. Just thought this was interesting. Too early in development and deployment to have any significant impact. Let’s just look at this as a thoughtful science experiment with good results.

SEATTLE, July 11, 2008 — Boeing [NYSE: BA] and partners in industry and government achieved significant reductions in fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions during a recent deployment of an innovative Air Traffic Management (ATM) concept called Tailored Arrivals.

From Dec. 4, 2007 to March 23, 2008, United Airlines, Air New Zealand and Japan Airlines completed 57 flights into San Francisco International Airport that utilized a continuous descent rather than a series of level segments as now required. The Tailored Arrivals approach reduced fuel consumption during descents by up to 39 percent, depending on airplane type, and total carbon emissions by more than 500,000 pounds.

“Concepts like Tailored Arrivals potentially can be deployed quickly and at relatively low cost because the technology is in place today,” said Kevin Brown, Boeing vice president and general manager of Air Traffic Management. “As more airlines and airports use it, we move closer toward realizing the benefits expected from the Next-Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen).”

>>Read full news release at Boeing: Boeing Tailored Arrivals ATM Concept Cuts Fuel, Emissions in Initial Deployment

**Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned.**

Apple Street Research at Apple Stores: a SuckingLess.com Stock Research Experiment

Tech analysts covering Apple (AAPL) have admitted they visit Apple stores regularly to keep up with the buzz and interest in Apple products. Jim Cramer has, I think, correctly classified Apple as a fashion and accessory company and NOT a computer/tech company. So, keeping tabs on the buzz is really important. I’ve been researching this way for my Apple (AAPL) shares for a while now, and it’s a lot of fun I admit!

My new research tool site, SuckingLess.com, is meant to help people do better research. So, I’m opening up this “field research” method of mine and asking all of you to help! Go to the Apple Store Street Research post and post pics of your visits to the Apple store, showing how crowded the stores are, or around which products. Or, just leave a comment about your experiences there and what impressions you got from the products!

This isn’t “actual” statistical research…but I think it’ll be fun, for all of us!

Again, I’m running my research open handed at SuckingLess.com, then posting my research analysis here as always!

SuckingLess.com, My New Investor Research Site, Debuts!

SuckingLess Logo

Jim Cramer has always said, its not “buy and hold” but “buy and homework.” Too many “investors” do not know what they own when they buy a stock, which is just reckless, but I don’t think its completely their fault. Most people don’t now how to do proper research, or have the background to understand how to do it. Even my friends who work at mutual funds often ask me where I get my info for the analysis I put on this site. This is why I started SuckingLess.coman investor research and education magazine/community.

SuckingLess.com is a collection of the best industry and company websites to learn about the companies you own. When you own a stock, you’re, in a sense, an owner in the company. So, you should at least understand the basics of the business or industry, which means you should probably read what someone who works in that industry would read. Still, this ISN’T you’re actual job and making it so would be too time consuming, so I’ve also tried to filter SuckingLess.com to have only the most relevant and easiest to understand websites.

I want SuckingLess.com to be a COMMUNITY, a tool for ALL OF US. So, I invite everyone to come and participate on the site, SUBMIT your favorite research resource to help others learn the way I’m trying to get this started with my own favorite bookmarks. Please RATE the sites you’ve used before to help others know what’s most useful, and leave comments on how you’re using the sites or anything you’ve learned. Again, to help others. I’m sure you’ll learn something from the site, so give back a little and share your investing knowledge and experience with us!  Sometimes its not immediately obvious what you can learn from a website, so give people a little insight too if theres a special way you’ve found to tap into the markets with a certain website.

For example, I don’t have many resources on financials, healthcare, or retail/discretionary because, as readers of this site you know, I focus on industrials, tech, and energy sectors. So, help me learn a bit too!

Finally, PLEASE PLEASE send me feedback on how to make the site more useful to you. This is a tool for all of us, so lets make this what WE need to do the best research. And get your friends and trading buddies to help build SuckingLess.com too. Thanks and hope this is what we all need to become better investors, i.e. Suck Less!

P.S. 90% of mutual funds underperform the markets…so sucking is not something to be ashamed of. We just have to suck less as we learn more.

Precision Castparts: Part 2 – Drivers for PCP’s Power Generation/Industrial markets

We’ll group these two markets together because the use of special metals from the likes of PCP for power generation and industrial markets are often very similar.

INDUSTRIAL GAS TURBINE (IGT)

This is the main driver for these two markets and why the power generation/industrial markets have so much potential for PCP. What are IGT’s? IGT is just a fancy name for jet engines that are used to generate power. Jet Engines just might be the most common way of generating power for heavy duty jobs from natural gas power plants to huge cargo ships. Since PCP is already the best at making jet engine parts for planes, making jet engine parts for other uses is a piece of cake.

Note: The momentum in IGT should prove even more lucrative for Woodward Governor, who has more than 60% in Turbine control technology. Basically, Woodward Governor’s control technology makes the IGT’s smart: allows IGT’s to operate under more situations, allows the IGT’s to self adjust during operations, and makes IGT’s more efficient and last longer, etc.

Estimates for IGT production will grow from about $9 Billion in 2007 to $15 Billion in 2011. IGT aftermarket and services are expected to grow from $1.3 Billion in 2005 to $1.7 Billion in 2010. The biggest players, GE and Seimens, are too big and diversified for this growth in IGT’s to significantly move their stock, which is why we’re turning to component players like Precision Castparts and Woodward Governor.

Why are IGT’s selling like hot cakes? Read the rest of this entry »