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P-40 WarHawk Portfolio

Tech: AAPL

Commodities: PCU, RIO, NUE

Agriculture: (sold: POT)

Aerospace/Defense: PCP, WGOV

Energy: BTU, CHK

Infrastructure: ABB, FWLT, MDR

Industrials: SPW, SNHY, TEX

Rails: UNP

Discretionary: (none)

Financials: (none)

Staples: MO, PM, HEK

Service: FCN

Mood: Buy the deep black bottomless crevasse fear, sell the…less fear.

**Update: 06/13/07**

Portfolio Summary…

**DISCLAIMER**

Mr. Lin is not a professional money manager and does not have the certification to give financial advice.  This site is intended to discuss stocks and the stock market in a simple, intuitive way but in no way should be considered as official financial or investment advice. Full Disclaimer

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Technology Archive

All stocks and stuff tech: cell phones, digital cameras, software, hardware, wireless, mobile devices, home entertainment, computers, camcorders, gps, games, home audio, home video, laptops, monitors, digital music players, VoIP, web

SuckingLess.com, My New Investor Research Site, Debuts!

SuckingLess Logo

Jim Cramer has always said, its not “buy and hold” but “buy and homework.” Too many “investors” do not know what they own when they buy a stock, which is just reckless, but I don’t think its completely their fault. Most people don’t now how to do proper research, or have the background to understand how to do it. Even my friends who work at mutual funds often ask me where I get my info for the analysis I put on this site. This is why I started SuckingLess.com - an investor research and education magazine/community.

SuckingLess.com is a collection of the best industry and company websites to learn about the companies you own. When you own a stock, you’re, in a sense, an owner in the company. So, you should at least understand the basics of the business or industry, which means you should probably read what someone who works in that industry would read. Still, this ISN’T you’re actual job and making it so would be too time consuming, so I’ve also tried to filter SuckingLess.com to have only the most relevant and easiest to understand websites.

I want SuckingLess.com to be a COMMUNITY, a tool for ALL OF US. So, I invite everyone to come and participate on the site, SUBMIT your favorite research resource to help others learn the way I’m trying to get this started with my own favorite bookmarks. Please RATE the sites you’ve used before to help others know what’s most useful, and leave comments on how you’re using the sites or anything you’ve learned. Again, to help others. I’m sure you’ll learn something from the site, so give back a little and share your investing knowledge and experience with us!  Sometimes its not immediately obvious what you can learn from a website, so give people a little insight too if theres a special way you’ve found to tap into the markets with a certain website.

For example, I don’t have many resources on financials, healthcare, or retail/discretionary because, as readers of this site you know, I focus on industrials, tech, and energy sectors. So, help me learn a bit too!

Finally, PLEASE PLEASE send me feedback on how to make the site more useful to you. This is a tool for all of us, so lets make this what WE need to do the best research. And get your friends and trading buddies to help build SuckingLess.com too. Thanks and hope this is what we all need to become better investors, i.e. Suck Less!

P.S. 90% of mutual funds underperform the markets…so sucking is not something to be ashamed of. We just have to suck less as we learn more.

Precision Castparts: Part 2 - Drivers for PCP’s Power Generation/Industrial markets

We’ll group these two markets together because the use of special metals from the likes of PCP for power generation and industrial markets are often very similar.

INDUSTRIAL GAS TURBINE (IGT)

This is the main driver for these two markets and why the power generation/industrial markets have so much potential for PCP. What are IGT’s? IGT is just a fancy name for jet engines that are used to generate power. Jet Engines just might be the most common way of generating power for heavy duty jobs from natural gas power plants to huge cargo ships. Since PCP is already the best at making jet engine parts for planes, making jet engine parts for other uses is a piece of cake.

Note: The momentum in IGT should prove even more lucrative for Woodward Governor, who has more than 60% in Turbine control technology. Basically, Woodward Governor’s control technology makes the IGT’s smart: allows IGT’s to operate under more situations, allows the IGT’s to self adjust during operations, and makes IGT’s more efficient and last longer, etc.

Estimates for IGT production will grow from about $9 Billion in 2007 to $15 Billion in 2011. IGT aftermarket and services are expected to grow from $1.3 Billion in 2005 to $1.7 Billion in 2010. The biggest players, GE and Seimens, are too big and diversified for this growth in IGT’s to significantly move their stock, which is why we’re turning to component players like Precision Castparts and Woodward Governor.

Why are IGT’s selling like hot cakes? Read the rest of this entry »

Precision Castparts: Part 1 - Overview of an Abandoned Growth Story

Precision Castparts (PCP) has been on a nasty slide down to $100 since tapping $130 when it reported earnings on May 6, 2008. Stocks who supply products going into commercial airlines, including PCP, continued to be sold off. Investors seem spooked by recent fleet downsizing by the major U.S. carriers on the back of high oil prices and struggling consumers. Or, PCP is getting dumped along with all other stocks related to Defense just because Obama won the Democratic nomination, which people take to mean Obama will be president and that the U.S. will never need a single bullet again or sell our weapons of war to the rest of the world. Geez investors are imaginative!

I don’t believe things have gotten worse for PCP since May 6th. The U.S. fleet downsizing has a minimal, if any, negative impact on PCP’s aerospace business. Like other airplane parts supplier, PCP’s aerospace business is levered to GLOBAL commercial airline demand, which is still flying off the charts. PCP’s direct exposure to Defense compared to its overall aerospace business is limited. More importantly, PCP has large exposure to the hot hot hot global power generation and oil & gas infrastructure. This segment, which PCP calls it’s power generation segment, is growing like a weed such that PCP has to expand 2 new factories to meet demand.

Here’s the plan. Overview of PCP, then the opportunities in power generation, and finally addressing the more complex concerns of the U.S. commercial airline exposure. Read the rest of this entry »

ABB is an Unstoppable Beast!

I love ABB! ABB delivered a picture perfect quarter across all metrics with net income rising 87% year-over-year to over $1 billion. Revenues rose 29% to $7.96 billion. Orders rose 28% to $10.8 billion, driving the backlog up 46% compared to a year ago. The real story for me is the blowout of estimates of the operating-profit margin, which expanded to 15.9% while analysts had expected it to be around 13%. Who doesn’t love expanding margins? I’ve said I’d expect to see margins expand to around 18%. ABB maintains its 2008 growth rates of 10% in automation and 15-20% in power. These are fabulous results, showing ABB businesses are on fire and operating improvements continues. Shares are up over 5% in Switzerland in early trade around 180 kr. Even with this move, the stock still trades below a PEG of 1, making it one of the cheapest value growth companies still! Highlights from the press release are:

CFO and interim CEO Michel Demare says, “Demand from utilities and most of our major industrial markets remained strong around the world, especially in emerging economies, but also in the U.S. Customers continued to invest in areas where we are market and technology leaders - power infrastructure, energy efficiency and productivity.

“These excellent results also reflect our continuing strong operational performance,”

“Lower cost sourcing, footprint optimization, better project execution and risk management, and more efficient capacity utilization all contributed to our improved results.”

These were operational improvements former CEO Fred Kindle architected and these initiatives seem to be sustaining itself even after Kindle quit in February. While it may be a bit early to say ABB can run just as well without Fred Kindle, such worries that caused ABB to sell off in February when Kindle left seems to be misplaced, at least for now.

Unexpectedly, ABB was a big beneficiary of higher commodity prices:

“Order growth continued in all divisions, led by Process Automation, where metals, minerals and marine customers in all regions built capacity or upgraded existing capacity to take advantage of high commodity prices and sustained demand.”

Emerging economies’ insatiable need for energy to power their new cities continues:

“Automation Products and Power Products also reported strong order growth, especially in emerging economies, reflecting favorable demand across all industrial markets and ongoing investments by power utilities in new and upgraded infrastructure.”

Finally, strength in robotics was driven by higher demand across all industries but especially by the automotive industry. This highlights the strength in autos overseas and that the disgustingly weak auto industry in the U.S. is only an U.S. problem: ” BRIC nations would produce 20 million vehicles in 2008 as against 17.4 million by both America and Canada, Scotiabank’s auto industry specialist Carlos Gomes said in a study released on Thursday.” (BRIC nations overtake North America in auto production - The Economic Times)

For the full ABB earnings release, go to http://www.abb.com/cawp/seitp202/bb97d62eeedbde75c125741c00450241.aspx

Again, as with all the other global growth names, the same themes emerge: strength in utilities, energy efficiency and conservation, power generation, infrastructure, oil and gas.  The companies are telling us the lay of the land.  Investing shouldn’t be this easy but right now it  is.  Why bother with all the traditional sectors that are junk now?  (i.e. drugs/pharma, banks, tech)  Make it easy on yourself, if you don’t know industrials that well, go learn a few.  It’s worth it in this environment.

**Disclosure: I own ABB as of this post**