This headline became amusing: Pfizer profit doubles, but anti-smoking drug lags

I guess all the laid-off people are depressed and smoking more, and don’t need anti-smoking drugs to recover for a job…because there are none.

**Disclosure: Long PM**

**Disclosure: I am long MDR and bought MDR Feb Calls as MDR dropped below $49**

Shale.tv is a unique, online video channel designed to provide a platform for in-depth information, discussion and analyses about the Barnett Shale and other shale natural gas plays in the US. Through a combination of live talk/interview shows and interactive and archived content, we hope to provide thorough, accurate and independent information about the complex issues and opportunities of developing natural gas domestically. We seek participation from all the stakeholders in these shale plays.

For now, I’m still using the following SuckingLess.com research sites for my natural gas holdings:

• FERC Natural Gas Markets: U.S. Government Data, Analysis, and Reports
• Global Rig Counts Data Provided by Baker Hughes (BHI): North American & International Rig Counts, Interactive Map Tracking
• Platts: Professional Energy and Metals Information (Prices, Data, Maps, Events, Magazines, Reports)
• GoHaynesvilleShale.com: All Things, People, Companies Haynesville Shale
• Extreme Engineering: Sakhalin Oil & Ice Complex on The Discovery Channel

**Disclosure: I own shares of CHK as of this post**

Thankfully, veteran commodity trader Joe Terranova on CNBC’s Fast Money had a simple rule of thumb to offer: June Highs, July Lows. Does it always work? Of course not! Market’s aren’t that easy! But I did a little check and found this rule of thumb is a good one any of us with natural gas exposure to keep close to heart. I used charts from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Natural Gas Market info- one of my favorite research tools I’ve collected at my SuckingLess.com website.

As you can see, other than the out-of-norm Katrina event in 2005, July natural gas prices have generally been lower than June prices. This weakness seems to persist from July into early or mid august. While natural gas prices in the following December-Januarys are usually higher than the July-August weakness, there are a few years where Natural Gas prices just keep sliding the rest of the year. I suppose Natural Gas prices still depend on the weather and how much of it is used, so it still has that random factor that we should all be aware of.  Personally, I think selling some Natural gas, whether taking partial or full positions off, seems like a smart thing to do given historical trends suggest July will be lower than June. Sure, you might miss another “Katrina” spike, but that feels more like rolling the dice.  Because I didn’t want to be completely out natural gas in case we get the hurricane spike, I’ve kept 25% of my HAL position, but bought USO puts against it.

However, this year, Natural Gas prices have been on a steady climb alongside crude oil’s climb, natural gas looking much less volatile than in the past. Natural gas isn’t a direct replacement of crude oil, but there are various users of energy who can switch between the two. When crude oil gets too expensive, they would switch to natural gas, thus increasing natural gas’s demand and raising it’s prices alongside crude. Jim Cramer offers a separate rule of thumb: Natural Gas prices trade at roughly 1/6 the price of crude oil. So, at the moment, either crude oil is too expensive or natural gas is too cheap

Also, I have offered the analysis of the trend to use much more natural gas for electrical power generation by utilities around the world. This should decrease some of the volatility in natural gas prices as demand becomes more consistent to produce consistent electrical power. Still, we need to do something about our limited storage capacities!

Remember, beyond just owning the companies, dig just slightly deeper into the businesses the companies are in. That’s why I started SuckingLess.com, to collect the most relevant industry magazines and information useful to investors.

SuckinLess.com Research Resources Used:

• FERC Natural Gas Markets: U.S. Government Data, Analysis, and Reports
• Platts: Professional Energy and Metals Information (Prices, Data, Maps, Events, Magazines, Reports)
• Power Engineering Magazine: Power Generation Industry Magazine

**Disclosure: I am long of CHK, HAL, and USO puts as of this post**

Also, Badger Meter’s recent acquisition of an automatic metering infrastructure (AMI) system is looking good. Watch for accelerating growth in this product line.

The majority of Badger’s sales are domestic, which is where the weakness concerns have been.  International infrastructure should still be strong across the board.  So if Badger can find strength in the U.S. domestic market, this is a good omen for both Flowserve (FLS) and SPX Corp (SPW), who are leaders in flow technology.

More on Badger Meter:

• Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) Technology
• Business Wire: Badger Meter Reports Record Second Quarter Results

Additional Water Utility Resources featured on SuckingLess.com Research Tools

• WaterWorld Magazine: Water and Wastewater Industry Magazine
• Industrial WaterWorld Magazine: Industrial Water and Wastewater Industry Magazine
• SuckingLess Utility Research Resources

**Disclosure: I own shares of FLS and SPW as of this post**

“LONDON (Reuters) - Citigroup chairman Win Bischoff has warned that house prices in Britain and the United States are likely to keep falling for another two years.

The chairman of one of the world’s most powerful banks told the BBC in an interview that he expects it will take two years for the markets to stabilise.

He also said he expected the credit crunch could continue through until 2009.

Bischoff told the BBC that there would be redundancies at the bank, which employs 12,000 people in Britain, and warned that some of them would be compulsory.

No further details were released of the interview which is due to be broadcast later on Saturday on the BBC News Channel (Reporting by Paul Majendie, Editing by Jon Boyle)”

Full Article: House prices could fall for two years

Suggested SuckingLess.com Research Resource:

• The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter: Tracking the Housing Finance Breakdown
• Annaly CEO Michael Farrell Financial Market Commentaries

“Our Industrial Products and Services segment had revenues of $966.4, $836.7 and $716.0 in 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively. Of the segment’s 2007 revenue, approximately 44% was from the sale of power transformers into the US transmission and distribution market.” ~SPX Corp’s 2007 10-K

One of my very first blog post dealt with the twin drivers for the power grid infrastructure suppliers: U.S. power grid outdated by some 30 yrs, always using near capacity and a system shock away from massive destructive blackouts. The complementary driver: BRIC (and then some..Mid East especially, no one talks about Saudi Arabia building 4 Dubai like cities….) countries building whole CITIES, of which the power grid is the foundation.

The problem with investing on this theme was the fragmentation of the electrical equipment suppliers whose products makes up the power grid. TNB and AZZ are a few to look at, but I still haven’t expanded my exposure beyond my ABB position. I chose ABB not just because it is a blue chip (that no one talks about) but also its significantly advance technology, for the power grid and others, like alternative energy (generating energy from waves? Yeah ABB does that! Ever see an ocean that doesn’t move? No. It’s definitely more consistent than wind or solar). However, I was disappointed by the fact that ABB only had around 18% exposure to the U.S., which I perceive as one of the biggest opportunities for this power grid theme.

ABB knew this as well, presented the details more directly than I can: ABB at the Bear Stearns Capital Goods Conference (New York, Nov. 29, 2007). I urge you to skim through these presentation slides. It’s only 14 slides, and there’s pictures. Limited reading required.

ABB finally acted on this opportunity today, expanding its power products presence in the Americas by acquiring Kuhlman Electric Corp from the Carlye Group. This is a great move for ABB, who has quickly built up a lot of cash. So much cash that, when the former CEO quit, investors were beginning to worry that the company didn’t have opportunites to put the cash to work to increase shareholder value. This move also highlights the attractiveness of American companies to European companies.

In the press release:

“Michel Demaré, ABB’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer stated: “This transaction is the first milestone of our acquisition strategy, which is focused on finding bolt-on acquisitions that selectively complement both our product range and geographical presence. The addition of Kuhlman Electric’s business into our power products portfolio will allow us to further capture opportunities for profitable growth. At the same time, our customers will benefit from our broader offering.”

ABB plans to integrate Kuhlman Electric’s operations into its Power Products business in North America.

Bernhard Jucker, head of ABB’s Power Products division, said: “Kuhlman Electric’s high-quality products and experience complement ABB’s offering in North America, and the company will benefit from ABB’s long-established global infrastructure and our network of professionals within the power industry.”

This is a reminder that it pays to just stick with the good sea-change multi-year themes like the power grid story. Most money managers do not learn the new trends, stubbornly sticking with industries they’re used to like financials and tech. Unless the manager is shorting these “traditional” portfolio components, how ugly are things?!? This isn’t being a “momentum trader” or “not being diversified.” This is living in reality, where cities are being built, and companies who build those cities will put money in your pockets. Good luck out there, do your research, and make your own judgments.

SuckingLess Resource Suggestions for Power Grid

• FERC Electric Power Markets: U.S. Government Data, Analysis, and Reports
• Power Engineering Magazine: Power Generation Industry Magazine
• Electric Light and Power Magazine

**Disclosure: I own shares of ABB and SPW as of this post**

BLOOMBERG: REINSURERS RUSH TO BRAZIL AS PREMIUMS CLIMB 40%

“By Telma Marotto

July 11 (Bloomberg) — Swiss Reinsurance Co. and Munich Re, the world’s two largest reinsurance companies, are leading a rush to Brazil to capitalize on the biggest deregulation of a market since China opened up more than six years ago.

At least 13 companies have been authorized to operate since the government ended its 69-year monopoly in April, said Armando Vergilio dos Santos Junior, head of Brazil’s insurance regulator, who estimates the number will reach 40 by December. He expects reinsurance premiums to rise 40 percent to $3.5 billion this year and then double to $7 billion by 2011.”

Full Article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aGQItoNVF_As&refer=home

“New concerns at major producer in Russia could push fertilizer prices up again
By Dave Hannon — Purchasing, 7/14/2008 9:33:00 AM

With demand booming and more supply expected to become restricted, potash prices are rising yet again.

In Russia, a vital rail line at one of the world’s largest potash mines could be closed soon, due to a rapidly expanding sinkhole, and put the mine down for at least several weeks until a new rail line is completed.”

full article:

http://www.purchasing.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6578219&article_prefix=CA&article_id=6578219&rssid=268